{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3db1998-fadd-44e3-87db-d70bb15c645e", "symbol": "CCL", "name": "Carnival Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 48.869, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -7.656, "architecture_energy": 6.846, "architecture_maturity": 19.402, "architecture_confidence": 51.454, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.25, "rotation_up": 16.14, "upward_expansion": 21.79, "deceleration": 60.7, "rotation_down": 41.54, "downward_expansion": 55.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.562718, 27.745795, 27.570214, 27.470517 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 28.99, "trend_reference": 27.771598, "distance_from_trend": 0.043872, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.076194, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.313179, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.769427, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.137915, "excess_performance": -0.26354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043872, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.313179, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068903, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075579, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.966589, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83604932, "relative_activity": 0.688793, "balance": 0.966589, "dry_up": 0.764667, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08328, "annualized_volatility": 0.45235, "from_high_reference": -0.138928, "from_low_reference": 0.242632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.771598, "fair_value_reference": 22.076194, "structural_low": 23.329517, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.048107, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.004073, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.243787, "worst_return": -0.306172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.017725, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.02635, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.500579, "worst_return": -0.407758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042895, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.104553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.688396, "worst_return": -0.554804, "sufficient": 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.194465, "volume": 97601892, "typical_volume": 128094019.55, "trend": 27.962306, "fair_value": 21.928318, "relative_strength": -14.409245, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.883845, "energy": 28.836512, "activity_lines": [ 26.716458, 27.566011, 27.296617, 27.416989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.666846, "volume": 109406769, "typical_volume": 124711574.35, "trend": 27.864851, "fair_value": 21.996842, "relative_strength": -10.172423, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.4287, "energy": 24.154725, "activity_lines": [ 26.872291, 27.550951, 27.379505, 27.397927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.99, "volume": 83604932, "typical_volume": 121378805.35, "trend": 27.771598, "fair_value": 22.076194, "relative_strength": -8.769427, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.656102, "energy": 6.845803, "activity_lines": [ 27.562718, 27.745795, 27.570214, 27.470517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }