{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3e085bc-df99-45fa-9a91-42708fef787d", "symbol": "AWSRIA", "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hUSD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.876, "architecture_energy": 50.971, "architecture_maturity": 64.907, "architecture_confidence": 70.857, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.84, "rotation_up": 44.39, "upward_expansion": 70.96, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 27.85, "downward_expansion": 20.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.091667, 26.145273, 25.658691, 24.972215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 26.565001, "trend_reference": 24.175667, "distance_from_trend": 0.098832, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.551251, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292622, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.691125, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.17233, "excess_performance": 0.001438, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.098832, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057291, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.292622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043088, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008717, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17233, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.2033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132201, "relative_activity": 1.916506, "balance": 2.2033, "dry_up": 1.300319, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023035, "annualized_volatility": 0.136466, "from_high_reference": -0.005429, "from_low_reference": 0.294591 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.175667, "fair_value_reference": 20.551251, "structural_low": 21.344999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007829, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.017833, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.097772, "worst_return": -0.028777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.023149, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.020243, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132656, "worst_return": -0.188931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071899, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.007695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152334, "worst_return": -0.072666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.058731, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.03931, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.232234, "worst_return": -0.096117, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049452, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002475, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042677, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093527, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149555, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035253, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020272, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03413, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010116, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069758, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 15.76, "volume": 53430, "typical_volume": 40028.45, "trend": 15.497667, "fair_value": 14.944256, "relative_strength": -4.419014, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.58644, "energy": 88.930439, "activity_lines": [ 26.434333, 26.031273, 25.065833, 24.427495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.895, "volume": 19699, "typical_volume": 79014.65, "trend": 23.825833, "fair_value": 20.363789, "relative_strength": -0.880859, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.672195, "energy": 67.382699, "activity_lines": [ 26.302666, 26.071818, 25.226833, 24.568968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.905001, "volume": 100547, "typical_volume": 79745.7, "trend": 23.9475, "fair_value": 20.423462, "relative_strength": -0.659742, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.4086, "energy": 64.230941, "activity_lines": [ 26.161334, 26.091727, 25.374524, 24.703108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.610001, "volume": 106338, "typical_volume": 67212.1, "trend": 24.056333, "fair_value": 20.48359, "relative_strength": -2.423264, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.910816, "energy": 50.076715, "activity_lines": [ 25.951667, 26.036182, 25.478953, 24.810366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.565001, "volume": 132201, "typical_volume": 68980.2, "trend": 24.175667, "fair_value": 20.551251, "relative_strength": -1.691125, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.876445, "energy": 50.970951, "activity_lines": [ 26.091667, 26.145273, 25.658691, 24.972215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }