{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3e2f165-6d4a-4cd5-b343-41503b8a1a3e", "symbol": "TTK", "name": "TAKKT AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.217, "architecture_energy": 48.48, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.445, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.85, "rotation_up": 27.48, "upward_expansion": 19.75, "deceleration": 66.74, "rotation_down": 47.55, "downward_expansion": 72.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.342, 2.333364, 2.413143, 2.526989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.43, "trend_reference": 2.772333, "distance_from_trend": -0.123482, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.43979, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.673378, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -44.560626, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.331499, "excess_performance": -0.505746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123482, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15124, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.673378, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010383, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.445606, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078442, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.331499, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456237, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1741, "relative_activity": 3.298285, "balance": 0.456237, "dry_up": 1.659089, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047009, "annualized_volatility": 0.395268, "from_high_reference": -0.539773, "from_low_reference": 0.087248 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.772333, "fair_value_reference": 7.43979, "structural_low": 2.235, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.045351, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.056463, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.254202, "worst_return": -0.26565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.152139, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.212504, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.142659, "worst_return": -0.294974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.189883, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.303473, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.216216, "worst_return": -0.436073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.648372, "energy": 84.452325, "activity_lines": [ 2.301, 2.345455, 2.457714, 2.626366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.335, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 611.8, "trend": 2.865167, "fair_value": 7.549981, "relative_strength": -47.510786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.443831, "energy": 69.015623, "activity_lines": [ 2.307667, 2.333818, 2.43919, 2.58928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.285, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 611.8, "trend": 2.815333, "fair_value": 7.494862, "relative_strength": -47.378156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.600487, "energy": 62.971433, "activity_lines": [ 2.299667, 2.318364, 2.418524, 2.551849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.43, "volume": 1741, "typical_volume": 527.85, "trend": 2.772333, "fair_value": 7.43979, "relative_strength": -44.560626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.216683, "energy": 48.479929, "activity_lines": [ 2.342, 2.333364, 2.413143, 2.526989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }