{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3e8ede2-fe70-4737-adc2-693d0aacd954", "symbol": "ISLAX", "name": "Icelandic Salmon AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.153, "architecture_energy": 79.74, "architecture_maturity": 26.867, "architecture_confidence": 94.364, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 12.69, "upward_expansion": 19.61, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 73.18, "downward_expansion": 95.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.733333, 60.981818, 66.663333, 68.882366 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 60.0, "trend_reference": 71.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.160839, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 109.043846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.449763, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.512521, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.228792, "excess_performance": -0.353786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160839, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076506, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.449763, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315125, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144248, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228792, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.085637, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6296, "relative_activity": 0.273973, "balance": 0.085637, "dry_up": 0.433173, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088462, "annualized_volatility": 0.353052, "from_high_reference": -0.385246, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 71.5, "fair_value_reference": 109.043846, "structural_low": 54.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.016563, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.047464, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.131579, "worst_return": -0.122302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.061947, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.125626, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.141509, "worst_return": -0.162234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.149321, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.30927, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.070796, "worst_return": -0.22069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082759, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.097744, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.070312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062016, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": 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"close": 54.0, "volume": 25537, "typical_volume": 42117.4, "trend": 72.086667, "fair_value": 109.64, "relative_strength": -38.935409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.413913, "energy": 91.204712, "activity_lines": [ 58.766667, 61.772727, 67.713809, 69.662151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.0, "volume": 6296, "typical_volume": 22980.4, "trend": 71.5, "fair_value": 109.043846, "relative_strength": -31.512521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.152575, "energy": 79.739952, "activity_lines": [ 58.733333, 60.981818, 66.663333, 68.882366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }