{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c3ec1121-3fd7-4cc2-8345-011acc455b76",
    "symbol": "COMF",
    "name": "L&G Longer Dated All Commodities UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 62.681,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 41.403,
    "architecture_energy": 37.52,
    "architecture_maturity": 26.43,
    "architecture_confidence": 50.973,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 44.07,
        "rotation_up": 61.83,
        "upward_expansion": 66.1,
        "deceleration": 63.19,
        "rotation_down": 9.96,
        "downward_expansion": 11.76
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        26.872333,
        26.554636,
        26.618405,
        26.461807
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 26.809999,
    "trend_reference": 26.007334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.030863,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 22.11642,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212221,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -5.189343,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.121523,
    "excess_performance": -0.049369,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030863,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052907,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.212221,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.045243,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.051893,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.093509,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.121523,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.925276,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 45926,
      "relative_activity": 5.08664,
      "balance": 2.925276,
      "dry_up": 1.630569,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.024359,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.159065,
      "from_high_reference": -0.049291,
      "from_low_reference": 0.316474
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 26.007334,
      "fair_value_reference": 22.11642,
      "structural_low": 23.4,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.004747,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00661,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.072727,
        "worst_return": -0.074318,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.000688,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023062,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.291964,
        "worst_return": -0.052966,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.018284,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012089,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.49256,
        "worst_return": -0.077836,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.132233,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.078628,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.29494,
        "worst_return": -0.030474,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.069667,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023358,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.032488,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.014765,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.04157,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.074318,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.013565,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-09-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.017084,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-09-19",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.02599,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.189546,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.002934,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "end": "2026-01-09",
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        "return": 0.032272,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": 0.028977,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 27.1,
        "volume": 3556,
        "typical_volume": 11976.8,
        "trend": 24.09372,
        "fair_value": 21.515478,
        "relative_strength": 6.38552,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.091366,
        "energy": 55.555004,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.560333,
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          25.666429,
          24.951129
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 27.115,
        "volume": 8918,
        "typical_volume": 12152.0,
        "trend": 24.278887,
        "fair_value": 21.563241,
        "relative_strength": 4.161606,
        "stage": 2,
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        "energy": 57.224289,
        "activity_lines": [
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          25.881405,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 27.655001,
        "volume": 22499,
        "typical_volume": 13152.5,
        "trend": 24.475054,
        "fair_value": 21.613029,
        "relative_strength": 6.462037,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 69.8168,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.158,
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          25.363864
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 27.525,
        "volume": 6653,
        "typical_volume": 13180.4,
        "trend": 24.537667,
        "fair_value": 21.662279,
        "relative_strength": 5.053256,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.279317,
        "energy": 72.854078,
        "activity_lines": [
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          26.331238,
          25.560635
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 27.040001,
        "volume": 9847,
        "typical_volume": 13438.35,
        "trend": 24.7005,
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        "relative_strength": 2.035624,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 54.648583,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.306334,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 26.915001,
        "volume": 446,
        "typical_volume": 12811.9,
        "trend": 24.860333,
        "fair_value": 21.75344,
        "relative_strength": 1.80718,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.07757,
        "energy": 50.447307,
        "activity_lines": [
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          25.864947
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 26.26,
        "volume": 1498,
        "typical_volume": 12458.25,
        "trend": 24.9875,
        "fair_value": 21.791997,
        "relative_strength": -3.651762,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 34.531946,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "trend": 25.115334,
        "fair_value": 21.831722,
        "relative_strength": -6.63513,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 35.513214,
        "energy": 24.135471,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 25.555,
        "volume": 771,
        "typical_volume": 10069.7,
        "trend": 25.213167,
        "fair_value": 21.869472,
        "relative_strength": -5.522122,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.422158,
        "energy": 20.570372,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.109667,
          26.569273,
          26.544548,
          26.052484
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 25.545,
        "volume": 3269,
        "typical_volume": 9904.1,
        "trend": 25.302833,
        "fair_value": 21.906645,
        "relative_strength": -8.209104,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -7.837315,
        "energy": 28.529189,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.836333,
          26.341637,
          26.479238,
          26.073893
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 26.184999,
        "volume": 6629,
        "typical_volume": 10109.0,
        "trend": 25.4335,
        "fair_value": 21.948087,
        "relative_strength": -5.444714,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 1.860084,
        "energy": 24.121848,
        "activity_lines": [
          25.876,
          26.252273,
          26.465691,
          26.130807
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 26.785,
        "volume": 4864,
        "typical_volume": 9970.6,
        "trend": 25.5845,
        "fair_value": 21.990555,
        "relative_strength": -1.871351,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 19.0924,
        "energy": 19.47408,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.164333,
          26.288636,
          26.500191,
          26.218
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.5,
        "volume": 2879,
        "typical_volume": 9452.35,
        "trend": 25.7495,
        "fair_value": 22.034914,
        "relative_strength": 0.836254,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.98228,
        "energy": 32.775923,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.656,
          26.461,
          26.592452,
          26.341581
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 26.695,
        "volume": 5219,
        "typical_volume": 7113.65,
        "trend": 25.892,
        "fair_value": 22.075555,
        "relative_strength": -2.788646,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.838033,
        "energy": 33.355828,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.783,
          26.489818,
          26.598833,
          26.402581
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 26.809999,
        "volume": 45926,
        "typical_volume": 9028.75,
        "trend": 26.007334,
        "fair_value": 22.11642,
        "relative_strength": -5.189343,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.402767,
        "energy": 37.519943,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.872333,
          26.554636,
          26.618405,
          26.461807
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}