{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3efc246-c82e-4833-8b7c-df522ed15c19", "symbol": "1532", "name": "China Metal Products Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.659, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 2.98, "architecture_energy": 7.369, "architecture_maturity": 25.513, "architecture_confidence": 37.685, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.42, "rotation_up": 22.07, "upward_expansion": 20.78, "deceleration": 68.28, "rotation_down": 36.44, "downward_expansion": 29.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.831817, 22.028259, 21.683662, 21.648872 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.799999, "trend_reference": 21.920043, "distance_from_trend": -0.005476, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.193723, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.253264, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.182242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.062164, "excess_performance": -0.503536, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005476, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052149, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.253264, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089205, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.351822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103358, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062164, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.555362, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1417269, "relative_activity": 0.423498, "balance": 3.555362, "dry_up": 0.780739, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048856, "annualized_volatility": 0.200372, "from_high_reference": -0.206953, "from_low_reference": 0.127274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.920043, "fair_value_reference": 29.193723, "structural_low": 19.33869, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009289, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.006832, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.101824, "worst_return": -0.106169, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.016541, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.028674, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.229965, "worst_return": -0.148438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015864, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03874, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.14094, "worst_return": -0.058027, 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decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.274624, "energy": 23.595087, "activity_lines": [ 22.338358, 22.23226, 21.594527, 21.743465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.35, "volume": 5740740, "typical_volume": 3554886.25, "trend": 22.127297, "fair_value": 29.339824, "relative_strength": -34.349003, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.437564, "energy": 7.972208, "activity_lines": [ 22.034626, 22.137612, 21.591797, 21.683952 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 1719711, "typical_volume": 3436025.6, "trend": 22.016436, "fair_value": 29.268585, "relative_strength": -33.774954, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.484838, "energy": 5.665147, "activity_lines": [ 21.90756, 22.096981, 21.637275, 21.662836 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 21.799999, "volume": 1417269, "typical_volume": 3346578.95, "trend": 21.920043, "fair_value": 29.193723, "relative_strength": -35.182242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.979969, "energy": 7.368639, "activity_lines": [ 21.831817, 22.028259, 21.683662, 21.648872 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }