{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3f98b8f-b5f8-4f51-bd21-a4a84d018dec", "symbol": "TFI", "name": "Thai Future Incorporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.991, "architecture_energy": 24.022, "architecture_maturity": 14.331, "architecture_confidence": 38.12, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.05, "rotation_up": 53.74, "upward_expansion": 52.1, "deceleration": 28.39, "rotation_down": 23.86, "downward_expansion": 12.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.049333, 0.047818, 0.046476, 0.046172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.046333, "distance_from_trend": 0.079137, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.067244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.256435, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.850444, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.192325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079137, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034722, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.256435, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178504, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005697, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.491018, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 461700, "relative_activity": 0.259874, "balance": 0.491018, "dry_up": 0.65302, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.230769, "annualized_volatility": 0.892574, "from_high_reference": -0.444444, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.046333, "fair_value_reference": 0.067244, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.192308, "directional_follow_through": 0.192308, "median_excess_return": -0.020433, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.092593, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.084539, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.6, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.145455, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.169634, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.276364, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.240081, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.421053, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.1, "volume": 5649500, "typical_volume": 6787795.0, "trend": 0.126, "fair_value": 0.184568, "relative_strength": -26.296086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.553975, "energy": 34.07773, 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0.067949, "relative_strength": -20.089025, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.867242, "energy": 13.119171, "activity_lines": [ 0.048, 0.045818, 0.045667, 0.045699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.05, "volume": 11500, "typical_volume": 1831340.0, "trend": 0.046333, "fair_value": 0.067564, "relative_strength": -18.765074, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.057367, "energy": 18.892461, "activity_lines": [ 0.048667, 0.046909, 0.046095, 0.045935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 461700, "typical_volume": 1776630.0, "trend": 0.046333, "fair_value": 0.067244, "relative_strength": -17.850444, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.99121, "energy": 24.021927, "activity_lines": [ 0.049333, 0.047818, 0.046476, 0.046172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }