{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3fad653-e7cb-4a96-a51b-1acd8294642a", "symbol": "KLBN3", "name": "Klabin S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 74.817, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 0.299, "architecture_energy": 20.263, "architecture_maturity": 21.018, "architecture_confidence": 64.81, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.17, "rotation_up": 41.95, "upward_expansion": 34.22, "deceleration": 46.14, "rotation_down": 14.17, "downward_expansion": 42.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.596667, 3.538727, 3.505095, 3.568753 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.62, "trend_reference": 3.664, "distance_from_trend": -0.012009, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.630911, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003005, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.790068, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.064599, "excess_performance": -0.007551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012009, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003005, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044206, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027901, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159089, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064599, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.358403, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3082000, "relative_activity": 0.767196, "balance": 2.358403, "dry_up": 0.679767, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033999, "annualized_volatility": 0.188734, "from_high_reference": -0.146226, "from_low_reference": 0.128319 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.664, "fair_value_reference": 3.630911, "structural_low": 3.23, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.022701, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.040637, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.143574, "worst_return": -0.134868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04053, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.054367, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.196609, "worst_return": -0.135949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008014, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.05876, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.171627, "worst_return": -0.257403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.095139, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.026403, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.199938, "worst_return": -0.251452, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05862, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011574, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133141, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101449, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.073757, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01355, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073099, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.424834, "volume": 2058570, "typical_volume": 2880859.85, "trend": 3.059325, "fair_value": 3.481965, "relative_strength": 10.17952, "stage": 2, 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3.686, "fair_value": 3.625571, "relative_strength": -10.11359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.319142, "energy": 32.375338, "activity_lines": [ 3.454, 3.429091, 3.498619, 3.591914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.53, "volume": 2215500, "typical_volume": 4103935.0, "trend": 3.680667, "fair_value": 3.62782, "relative_strength": -7.209088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.240432, "energy": 22.817241, "activity_lines": [ 3.484667, 3.450727, 3.491524, 3.581849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.53, "volume": 3050100, "typical_volume": 4077025.0, "trend": 3.673667, "fair_value": 3.62858, "relative_strength": -6.901053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.349378, "energy": 23.095585, "activity_lines": [ 3.508, 3.470909, 3.487238, 3.572129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.67, "volume": 2575500, "typical_volume": 4047950.0, "trend": 3.668667, "fair_value": 3.629708, "relative_strength": -4.909679, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.900847, "energy": 20.703144, "activity_lines": [ 3.568667, 3.512545, 3.498143, 3.571892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.62, "volume": 3082000, "typical_volume": 4017225.0, "trend": 3.664, "fair_value": 3.630911, "relative_strength": -2.790068, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.298525, "energy": 20.263337, "activity_lines": [ 3.596667, 3.538727, 3.505095, 3.568753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }