{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3fc2a4f-6085-466f-b3ad-973b089f9a2b", "symbol": "PIO", "name": "INVESCO GLOBAL WATER ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.551, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.635, "architecture_energy": 15.933, "architecture_maturity": 10.664, "architecture_confidence": 50.694, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.21, "rotation_up": 48.04, "upward_expansion": 36.6, "deceleration": 32.09, "rotation_down": 27.25, "downward_expansion": 22.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.23734, 45.058534, 44.805607, 44.865148 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 46.4473, "trend_reference": 45.227709, "distance_from_trend": 0.026966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.404844, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121784, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.089152, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.016128, "excess_performance": -0.203581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026966, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000857, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121784, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100892, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053877, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016128, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.873973, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21519, "relative_activity": 0.475164, "balance": 0.873973, "dry_up": 0.710168, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028756, "annualized_volatility": 0.188957, "from_high_reference": -0.043813, "from_low_reference": 0.104407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.227709, "fair_value_reference": 41.404844, "structural_low": 42.056315, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.004466, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003793, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.060563, "worst_return": -0.085219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.031344, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.011955, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.071363, "worst_return": -0.113388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013657, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01842, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.211875, "worst_return": -0.221582, 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"relative_strength": -11.664065, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.986413, "energy": 16.939769, "activity_lines": [ 45.033844, 44.635194, 44.607214, 44.872109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.166, "volume": 28071, "typical_volume": 47517.4, "trend": 45.195001, "fair_value": 41.271338, "relative_strength": -10.331287, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.298545, "energy": 13.254016, "activity_lines": [ 44.737133, 44.612858, 44.577546, 44.805151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.8877, "volume": 43361, "typical_volume": 47176.4, "trend": 45.210043, "fair_value": 41.33303, "relative_strength": -9.02333, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.063365, "energy": 6.124336, "activity_lines": [ 44.717967, 44.705475, 44.620682, 44.785325 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.4473, "volume": 21519, "typical_volume": 45287.55, "trend": 45.227709, "fair_value": 41.404844, "relative_strength": -10.089152, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.635167, "energy": 15.932885, "activity_lines": [ 45.23734, 45.058534, 44.805607, 44.865148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }