{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c3fc997f-c247-44fa-ad4b-500aadde5d1e", "symbol": "XGRO", "name": "iShares Core Growth ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.789, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.886, "architecture_energy": 52.77, "architecture_maturity": 75.484, "architecture_confidence": 52.72, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.61, "rotation_up": 47.37, "upward_expansion": 74.79, "deceleration": 70.81, "rotation_down": 28.71, "downward_expansion": 12.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.478, 38.426364, 37.985271, 37.393952 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 39.099998, "trend_reference": 36.729882, "distance_from_trend": 0.064528, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.590482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278175, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.867261, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095851, "excess_performance": -0.02457, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064528, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030508, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278175, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017497, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.028673, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008828, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.3767, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 368300, "relative_activity": 0.871334, "balance": 1.3767, "dry_up": 1.094136, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018236, "annualized_volatility": 0.115193, "from_high_reference": -0.005089, "from_low_reference": 0.199514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.729882, "fair_value_reference": 30.590482, "structural_low": 33.786389, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.008055, "positive_rate": 0.688889, "directional_follow_through": 0.688889, "median_excess_return": 0.000389, "regime_survival": 0.822222, "best_return": 0.08533, "worst_return": -0.083743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.029563, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.003691, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.080709, "worst_return": -0.048539, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.052949, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": -0.01478, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.126453, "worst_return": -0.132672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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37.42504, 36.909362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.02, "volume": 560300, "typical_volume": 467960.0, "trend": 36.421224, "fair_value": 30.312526, "relative_strength": -3.076179, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.277906, "energy": 56.989721, "activity_lines": [ 38.383961, 38.251936, 37.551477, 37.018557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.07, "volume": 448100, "typical_volume": 438505.0, "trend": 36.510289, "fair_value": 30.401487, "relative_strength": -3.061689, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.636437, "energy": 51.888237, "activity_lines": [ 38.264, 38.26005, 37.674618, 37.12493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.200001, "volume": 473200, "typical_volume": 431845.0, "trend": 36.619869, "fair_value": 30.493069, "relative_strength": -2.161794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.236771, "energy": 40.761816, "activity_lines": [ 38.223334, 38.268585, 37.795484, 37.233944 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.099998, "volume": 368300, "typical_volume": 422685.0, "trend": 36.729882, "fair_value": 30.590482, "relative_strength": -2.867261, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.885755, "energy": 52.769547, "activity_lines": [ 38.478, 38.426364, 37.985271, 37.393952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }