{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c40475d7-a8dd-4fd6-9884-0d8b1a331be4", "symbol": "APOLLOTYRE", "name": "Apollo Tyres Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.911, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.77, "architecture_energy": 13.337, "architecture_maturity": 19.978, "architecture_confidence": 57.454, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.91, "rotation_up": 33.61, "upward_expansion": 31.02, "deceleration": 39.3, "rotation_down": 20.68, "downward_expansion": 46.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 433.196663, 431.093291, 421.013548, 422.876494 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 445.0, "trend_reference": 433.576925, "distance_from_trend": 0.026346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 456.645432, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.025502, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.751702, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111266, "excess_performance": -0.067557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026346, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059422, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.025502, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074579, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111266, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.615168, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6014195, "relative_activity": 1.409275, "balance": 0.615168, "dry_up": 0.915052, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049522, "annualized_volatility": 0.300671, "from_high_reference": -0.170953, "from_low_reference": 0.218177 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 433.576925, "fair_value_reference": 456.645432, "structural_low": 365.299988, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.00407, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.00394, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.152535, "worst_return": -0.175685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042152, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.005017, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.221564, "worst_return": -0.156088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.094568, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.048775, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.519299, "worst_return": -0.130306, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 419.649994, "volume": 1776144, "typical_volume": 4499291.7, "trend": 437.629289, "fair_value": 456.236346, "relative_strength": -4.202525, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.410227, "energy": 18.608025, "activity_lines": [ 430.750033, 424.000435, 417.08542, 422.871327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 428.149994, "volume": 2998470, "typical_volume": 4232448.1, "trend": 435.440616, "fair_value": 456.257828, "relative_strength": -4.705749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.783836, "energy": 12.770351, "activity_lines": [ 429.163308, 426.527317, 418.313412, 422.25976 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 445.0, "volume": 6014195, "typical_volume": 4267581.6, "trend": 433.576925, "fair_value": 456.645432, "relative_strength": -1.751702, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.770267, "energy": 13.336976, "activity_lines": [ 433.196663, 431.093291, 421.013548, 422.876494 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }