{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4063d9a-f3da-46dd-930f-3b83ae350699", "symbol": "SMDV", "name": "PROSHARES RUSSELL 2000 DIVIDEND GROWERS ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.811, "architecture_energy": 59.867, "architecture_maturity": 45.87, "architecture_confidence": 71.979, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 67.86, "upward_expansion": 84.67, "deceleration": 60.19, "rotation_down": 18.41, "downward_expansion": 9.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.923667, 77.300351, 75.435485, 74.129322 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 78.78, "trend_reference": 72.74049, "distance_from_trend": 0.083028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.341816, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.224398, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.582634, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076287, "excess_performance": -0.049337, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049464, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.224398, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069104, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005826, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044937, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076287, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.769979, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 265238, "relative_activity": 1.49774, "balance": 0.769979, "dry_up": 1.695035, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029183, "annualized_volatility": 0.148148, "from_high_reference": -0.009804, "from_low_reference": 0.250256 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.74049, "fair_value_reference": 64.341816, "structural_low": 66.162951, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013938, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.028107, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.053608, "worst_return": -0.106928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002681, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.1065, "worst_return": -0.107192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031266, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.153061, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.032532, "worst_return": -0.124411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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63.950575, "relative_strength": 3.974452, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.267181, "energy": 87.208234, "activity_lines": [ 77.195211, 75.807717, 73.986891, 72.990426 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.71, "volume": 232176, "typical_volume": 158262.45, "trend": 72.00962, "fair_value": 64.080622, "relative_strength": 3.878785, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.654228, "energy": 77.737422, "activity_lines": [ 77.518333, 76.398236, 74.491989, 73.381377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.21, "volume": 360034, "typical_volume": 168603.4, "trend": 72.387236, "fair_value": 64.207048, "relative_strength": 2.064827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.781919, "energy": 56.670256, "activity_lines": [ 77.444, 76.756748, 74.910967, 73.716886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 78.78, "volume": 265238, "typical_volume": 177092.1, "trend": 72.74049, "fair_value": 64.341816, "relative_strength": 0.582634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.811358, "energy": 59.867062, "activity_lines": [ 77.923667, 77.300351, 75.435485, 74.129322 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }