{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4080971-182a-4daa-b73d-5dcf8aab24e8", "symbol": "688385", "name": "Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.316, "architecture_energy": 67.351, "architecture_maturity": 32.937, "architecture_confidence": 86.837, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.01, "rotation_up": 14.88, "upward_expansion": 19.51, "deceleration": 32.06, "rotation_down": 67.92, "downward_expansion": 85.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.093334, 57.020446, 60.374038, 63.740434 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 54.470001, "trend_reference": 69.099179, "distance_from_trend": -0.211713, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.396128, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.125503, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.197839, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31989, "excess_performance": -0.276686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.211713, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022818, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.125503, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369051, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161978, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223047, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31989, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.534119, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73412341, "relative_activity": 0.981246, "balance": 0.534119, "dry_up": 1.36584, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.174442, "annualized_volatility": 0.694965, "from_high_reference": -0.455137, "from_low_reference": 0.194518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.099179, "fair_value_reference": 48.396128, "structural_low": 45.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.020153, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.017418, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.554123, "worst_return": -0.187013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032992, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.020469, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.501625, "worst_return": -0.464925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.137169, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049162, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.380211, "worst_return": -0.311144, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.823398, "energy": 25.501122, "activity_lines": [ 63.348456, 62.126192, 64.394353, 67.483995 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.509998, "volume": 114892070, "typical_volume": 73444210.8, "trend": 70.704512, "fair_value": 48.465009, "relative_strength": -19.802903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.730627, "energy": 35.635085, "activity_lines": [ 58.930648, 59.957912, 62.860517, 66.148478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.650002, "volume": 82662021, "typical_volume": 74546134.8, "trend": 69.740178, "fair_value": 48.403013, "relative_strength": -23.056895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.183612, "energy": 60.735227, "activity_lines": [ 54.522133, 57.789452, 61.289349, 64.725606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.470001, "volume": 73412341, "typical_volume": 74815464.55, "trend": 69.099179, "fair_value": 48.396128, "relative_strength": -16.197839, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.315809, "energy": 67.351002, "activity_lines": [ 53.093334, 57.020446, 60.374038, 63.740434 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }