{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c418b19f-03aa-4147-95c7-ce3316142ac9", "symbol": "SPDN", "name": "DIREXION DAILY S&P 500 BEAR 1X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -76.73, "architecture_energy": 50.055, "architecture_maturity": 52.461, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.5, "rotation_up": 26.92, "upward_expansion": 6.89, "deceleration": 54.65, "rotation_down": 51.54, "downward_expansion": 80.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.632, 8.675363, 8.742097, 8.918827 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.43, "trend_reference": 9.108656, "distance_from_trend": -0.074507, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.608819, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205378, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.321913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095776, "excess_performance": -0.221401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.074507, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024827, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205378, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.193219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004918, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095776, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.359183, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 220672825, "relative_activity": 0.807657, "balance": 0.359183, "dry_up": 0.870261, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026945, "annualized_volatility": 0.141581, "from_high_reference": -0.179961, "from_low_reference": 0.005967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.108656, "fair_value_reference": 10.608819, "structural_low": 8.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.007432, "positive_rate": 0.395349, "directional_follow_through": 0.55814, "median_excess_return": -0.021259, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.08367, "worst_return": -0.058824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.028376, "positive_rate": 0.133333, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.07247, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.083297, "worst_return": -0.073834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.062916, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.150947, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.157233, "worst_return": -0.108199, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 306065724.55, "trend": 9.157856, "fair_value": 10.661095, "relative_strength": -13.035392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.200968, "energy": 38.096853, "activity_lines": [ 8.737333, 8.727532, 8.82875, 8.993232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.71, "volume": 305658757, "typical_volume": 288658951.4, "trend": 9.135435, "fair_value": 10.636053, "relative_strength": -14.290744, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.705997, "energy": 39.485409, "activity_lines": [ 8.726, 8.727256, 8.796208, 8.964338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.43, "volume": 220672825, "typical_volume": 273225991.95, "trend": 9.108656, "fair_value": 10.608819, "relative_strength": -19.321913, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.730491, "energy": 50.054966, "activity_lines": [ 8.632, 8.675363, 8.742097, 8.918827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }