{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4249bf7-dedc-4c1f-8054-aa3dd9b6d00d", "symbol": "CEDO4", "name": "Companhia de Fia\u00e7\u00e3o e Tecidos Cedro e Cachoeira S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.144, "architecture_energy": 38.587, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.033, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.78, "rotation_up": 27.82, "upward_expansion": 23.0, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 38.27, "downward_expansion": 64.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.349333, 5.249818, 5.507667, 6.113634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.07, "trend_reference": 7.039333, "distance_from_trend": -0.279761, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.757115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.714481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.8243, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.461211, "excess_performance": -0.404163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.279761, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.714481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095142, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.458243, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066933, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.461211, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.046141, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2500, "relative_activity": 0.163988, "balance": 0.046141, "dry_up": 0.221384, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116219, "annualized_volatility": 0.51494, "from_high_reference": -0.708621, "from_low_reference": 0.065126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.039333, "fair_value_reference": 17.757115, "structural_low": 4.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.317073, "directional_follow_through": 0.658537, "median_excess_return": -0.028894, "regime_survival": 0.926829, "best_return": 0.226908, "worst_return": -0.295775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.108696, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.177322, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.070058, "worst_return": -0.433598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.20098, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.243251, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.039268, "worst_return": -0.516035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.265595, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.371211, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.567696, "worst_return": -0.715429, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-04-07", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.318087, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-05-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113386, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.956186, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.286633, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.155652, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158183, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140637, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115127, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1144, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080952, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.718333, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.99, "volume": 222500, "typical_volume": 202180.0, "trend": 6.539333, "fair_value": 5.645641, "relative_strength": 200.494256, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 5.054, 5.169818, 5.868571, 6.64271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.01, "volume": 4700, "typical_volume": 15505.0, "trend": 7.504667, "fair_value": 17.888846, "relative_strength": -51.677329, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.710298, "energy": 67.795438, "activity_lines": [ 5.038667, 5.09, 5.714095, 6.470452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.11, "volume": 5100, "typical_volume": 15670.0, "trend": 7.365333, "fair_value": 17.850449, "relative_strength": -39.478266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.282968, "energy": 54.09575, "activity_lines": [ 5.388667, 5.244364, 5.686476, 6.380473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.36, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 15535.0, "trend": 7.200667, "fair_value": 17.806923, "relative_strength": -46.366061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.528795, "energy": 41.741664, "activity_lines": [ 5.43, 5.266364, 5.602667, 6.251097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.07, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 15245.0, "trend": 7.039333, "fair_value": 17.757115, "relative_strength": -45.8243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.143827, "energy": 38.586729, "activity_lines": [ 5.349333, 5.249818, 5.507667, 6.113634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }