{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c42d0466-936e-42ce-9df3-ccea27050e7b", "symbol": "ARBB", "name": "ARB IOT Group Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.44, "architecture_energy": 64.421, "architecture_maturity": 15.666, "architecture_confidence": 81.265, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.69, "rotation_up": 9.68, "upward_expansion": 13.58, "deceleration": 37.62, "rotation_down": 74.85, "downward_expansion": 91.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.147333, 4.379818, 4.570962, 4.625516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 4.1, "trend_reference": 4.799927, "distance_from_trend": -0.14582, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.265062, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.600587, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.689995, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.261261, "excess_performance": -0.448715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14582, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.600587, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068346, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025758, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.261261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.222565, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11445, "relative_activity": 0.08828, "balance": 1.222565, "dry_up": 0.088712, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135336, "annualized_volatility": 0.514542, "from_high_reference": -0.704824, "from_low_reference": 0.105121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.799927, "fair_value_reference": 10.265062, "structural_low": 3.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.079393, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.009993, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 2.229109, "worst_return": -0.189985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.205435, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.05924, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.118478, "worst_return": -0.094606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.596796, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.580073, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.08572, "worst_return": 0.107873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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4.859927, "fair_value": 10.450319, "relative_strength": -31.469196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.224533, "energy": 59.648713, "activity_lines": [ 4.222, 4.497818, 4.620769, 4.674544 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.1, "volume": 11445, "typical_volume": 129644.9, "trend": 4.799927, "fair_value": 10.265062, "relative_strength": -32.689995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.440239, "energy": 64.421189, "activity_lines": [ 4.147333, 4.379818, 4.570962, 4.625516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }