{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c42f989c-6c7b-44eb-a53d-dba83625ecc6", "symbol": "ETSY", "name": "Etsy, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.492, "architecture_energy": 93.631, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.901, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 87.11, "upward_expansion": 99.92, "deceleration": 39.02, "rotation_down": 8.63, "downward_expansion": 21.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 1467.85533, 1408.38509, 1295.895142, 1212.967267 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 1496.0, "trend_reference": 1121.952665, "distance_from_trend": 0.33339, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1111.123718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.803091, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.571429, "excess_performance": 0.626095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.33339, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115474, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.350899, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.308031, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.353295, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.571429, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.471074, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126, "relative_activity": 0.617798, "balance": 1.471074, "dry_up": 0.214513, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035236, "annualized_volatility": 0.508302, "from_high_reference": -0.002667, "from_low_reference": 0.958115 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1121.952665, "fair_value_reference": 1111.123718, "structural_low": 764.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.033464, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053487, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.170694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.222554, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.358412, "worst_return": -0.47613, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.153778, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.373157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.053292, "worst_return": -0.660697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 96.775441, "energy": 98.774647, "activity_lines": [ 1379.627995, 1299.096726, 1202.227236, 1138.990385 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1480.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 209.7, "trend": 1093.152665, "fair_value": 1109.495513, "relative_strength": 31.007767, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.188608, "energy": 96.485087, "activity_lines": [ 1426.269328, 1343.21709, 1236.210189, 1164.980514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1449.0, "volume": 44, "typical_volume": 211.9, "trend": 1108.052665, "fair_value": 1109.860897, "relative_strength": 27.122524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.420708, "energy": 90.640168, "activity_lines": [ 1442.243994, 1375.246544, 1264.907427, 1187.938407 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1496.0, "volume": 126, "typical_volume": 203.95, "trend": 1121.952665, "fair_value": 1111.123718, "relative_strength": 30.803091, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.492413, "energy": 93.63078, "activity_lines": [ 1467.85533, 1408.38509, 1295.895142, 1212.967267 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }