{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c435ffd3-9050-4e92-8c72-a92b37bff78a", "symbol": "MAT", "name": "Mattel, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.413, "architecture_energy": 24.748, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.758, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.54, "rotation_up": 33.33, "upward_expansion": 28.34, "deceleration": 41.33, "rotation_down": 27.5, "downward_expansion": 64.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 252.944002, 249.142911, 251.601238, 259.05286 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 266.0, "trend_reference": 278.074999, "distance_from_trend": -0.043424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 342.460064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223267, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.973306, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.297022, "excess_performance": -0.242355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223267, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034784, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159733, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141581, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.297022, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.026168, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219, "relative_activity": 1.877411, "balance": 3.026168, "dry_up": 3.44835, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023424, "annualized_volatility": 0.483337, "from_high_reference": -0.335, "from_low_reference": 0.151515 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 278.074999, "fair_value_reference": 342.460064, "structural_low": 231.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.006003, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.146552, "worst_return": -0.134986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022416, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.048773, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.138235, "worst_return": -0.170444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038771, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.121414, "worst_return": -0.195376, "sufficient": false }, { 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249.733333, 252.499999, 257.627427, 273.412837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 232.0, "volume": 51, "typical_volume": 40.05, "trend": 295.406999, "fair_value": 345.256603, "relative_strength": -28.480588, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.731743, "energy": 78.169979, "activity_lines": [ 244.0, 248.367272, 254.449713, 269.014536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 235.0, "volume": 1364, "typical_volume": 107.85, "trend": 290.790332, "fair_value": 344.461475, "relative_strength": -26.930245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.240586, "energy": 75.723931, "activity_lines": [ 240.2, 245.198181, 251.89038, 265.117311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 236.0, "volume": 15, "typical_volume": 108.6, "trend": 286.206999, "fair_value": 343.730705, "relative_strength": -25.716042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.572269, "energy": 71.314836, "activity_lines": [ 237.733333, 242.665454, 249.740952, 261.58245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 263.540009, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 105.7, "trend": 282.541666, "fair_value": 343.1075, "relative_strength": -17.219337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.635627, "energy": 60.507818, "activity_lines": [ 245.380003, 245.667274, 250.524286, 260.120064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 266.0, "volume": 219, "typical_volume": 116.65, "trend": 278.074999, "fair_value": 342.460064, "relative_strength": -15.973306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.413114, "energy": 24.747874, "activity_lines": [ 252.944002, 249.142911, 251.601238, 259.05286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }