{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c43be2e4-bc93-48f5-80cb-9ae637d526ec", "symbol": "DNUT", "name": "Krispy Kreme, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.764, "architecture_energy": 51.52, "architecture_maturity": 7.35, "architecture_confidence": 67.285, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.75, "rotation_up": 17.77, "upward_expansion": 19.03, "deceleration": 43.59, "rotation_down": 65.75, "downward_expansion": 60.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.096666, 59.196363, 60.734571, 60.80243 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 57.869999, "trend_reference": 60.399333, "distance_from_trend": -0.041877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 150.532023, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.615564, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.665025, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.056022, "excess_performance": 0.110689, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078576, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.615564, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011896, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044228, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056022, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.6279, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1137, "relative_activity": 1.819782, "balance": 0.6279, "dry_up": 0.704625, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084978, "annualized_volatility": 0.646795, "from_high_reference": -0.359774, "from_low_reference": 0.1574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.399333, "fair_value_reference": 150.532023, "structural_low": 50.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.065766, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.077196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131387, "worst_return": 0.000146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.065766, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.097267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131387, "worst_return": 0.000146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.028157, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.019432, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.056022, "worst_return": 0.000292, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.186192, 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"2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.175573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.353293, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069525, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.298077, "active": false }, { "regime": 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154.051102, "relative_strength": -13.645148, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.135773, "energy": 33.551548, "activity_lines": [ 59.979999, 61.976363, 62.205666, 61.749333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.0, "volume": 384, "typical_volume": 682.55, "trend": 61.609333, "fair_value": 152.879849, "relative_strength": -14.378915, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.281277, "energy": 41.044818, "activity_lines": [ 58.606666, 61.083636, 61.721809, 61.41157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.299999, "volume": 228, "typical_volume": 678.15, "trend": 61.002333, "fair_value": 151.697699, "relative_strength": -16.976382, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.304273, "energy": 52.545829, "activity_lines": [ 57.199999, 59.881818, 61.099857, 61.004516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.869999, "volume": 1137, "typical_volume": 624.8, "trend": 60.399333, "fair_value": 150.532023, "relative_strength": -12.665025, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.763519, "energy": 51.52044, "activity_lines": [ 57.096666, 59.196363, 60.734571, 60.80243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }