{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c43c230e-c361-4e5d-8111-d0f0a7962a09", "symbol": "DOLE", "name": "Dole PLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.786, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.976, "architecture_energy": 27.489, "architecture_maturity": 32.45, "architecture_confidence": 88.887, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.7, "rotation_up": 22.76, "upward_expansion": 2.43, "deceleration": 53.68, "rotation_down": 44.38, "downward_expansion": 75.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.084, 14.111152, 14.223062, 14.402872 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.83, "trend_reference": 14.673911, "distance_from_trend": -0.057511, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.247974, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.813155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137638, "excess_performance": -0.263263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057511, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005002, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084807, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063435, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137638, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.119404, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4007392, "relative_activity": 0.84918, "balance": 1.119404, "dry_up": 0.930515, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051716, "annualized_volatility": 0.20388, "from_high_reference": -0.155333, "from_low_reference": 0.12438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.673911, "fair_value_reference": 13.247974, "structural_low": 13.518275, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.04886, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.028986, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.136578, "worst_return": -0.052788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102019, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.069926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115441, "worst_return": 0.094035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.095259, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003795, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156709, "worst_return": 0.043038, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"typical_volume": 4709178.7, "trend": 14.74838, "fair_value": 13.201681, "relative_strength": -9.915134, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.8035, "energy": 26.752809, "activity_lines": [ 14.129585, 14.112116, 14.347678, 14.553753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.42, "volume": 2885823, "typical_volume": 4616679.7, "trend": 14.726088, "fair_value": 13.216349, "relative_strength": -7.484927, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.907851, "energy": 20.346392, "activity_lines": [ 14.228, 14.159304, 14.336517, 14.532567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.14, "volume": 3450150, "typical_volume": 4593056.2, "trend": 14.702369, "fair_value": 13.22797, "relative_strength": -8.478149, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.737344, "energy": 18.861624, "activity_lines": [ 14.222667, 14.162321, 14.305496, 14.494755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.14, "volume": 7221514, "typical_volume": 4810103.85, "trend": 14.691824, "fair_value": 13.239472, "relative_strength": -9.189513, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.713757, "energy": 16.988618, "activity_lines": [ 14.208, 14.16307, 14.278947, 14.458473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.83, "volume": 4007392, "typical_volume": 4719129.15, "trend": 14.673911, "fair_value": 13.247974, "relative_strength": -13.813155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.976277, "energy": 27.489402, "activity_lines": [ 14.084, 14.111152, 14.223062, 14.402872 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }