{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c43d59e8-e1a3-4efb-9fb2-771fe1c4e8a1", "symbol": "SRT", "name": "SRT Marine Systems plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.837, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.328, "architecture_energy": 36.397, "architecture_maturity": 25.932, "architecture_confidence": 88.06, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.67, "rotation_up": 19.75, "upward_expansion": 4.34, "deceleration": 54.08, "rotation_down": 46.78, "downward_expansion": 73.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.789333, 0.7932, 0.817886, 0.83126 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.795, "trend_reference": 0.853333, "distance_from_trend": -0.068359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.573734, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.38566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.658194, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121547, "excess_performance": -0.172782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01701, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.38566, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264606, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136582, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121547, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520246, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1747014, "relative_activity": 1.40155, "balance": 0.520246, "dry_up": 1.129661, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066275, "annualized_volatility": 0.315944, "from_high_reference": -0.19697, "from_low_reference": 0.164409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.853333, "fair_value_reference": 0.573734, "structural_low": 0.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.016667, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.012254, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.356643, "worst_return": -0.254237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.105263, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.147196, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.365079, "worst_return": -0.36, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.412698, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.26499, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.8125, "worst_return": -0.392405, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.439943, "energy": 56.599622, "activity_lines": [ 0.797467, 0.812855, 0.833576, 0.846249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.78, "volume": 1604844, "typical_volume": 1200418.4, "trend": 0.863, "fair_value": 0.570978, "relative_strength": -14.72521, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.106291, "energy": 44.368701, "activity_lines": [ 0.793, 0.803364, 0.827338, 0.840744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.78, "volume": 1465070, "typical_volume": 1206101.35, "trend": 0.859, "fair_value": 0.57226, "relative_strength": -15.467359, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.030082, "energy": 37.750925, "activity_lines": [ 0.788667, 0.795964, 0.821719, 0.835389 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.795, "volume": 1747014, "typical_volume": 1246486.95, "trend": 0.853333, "fair_value": 0.573734, "relative_strength": -13.658194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.327957, "energy": 36.396551, "activity_lines": [ 0.789333, 0.7932, 0.817886, 0.83126 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }