{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c446f317-3f34-4aa7-904d-0f7cce54ca91", "symbol": "XM31", "name": "Xtrackers Target Maturity Sept", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.621, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.579, "architecture_energy": 26.64, "architecture_maturity": 58.259, "architecture_confidence": 78.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.8, "rotation_up": 24.7, "upward_expansion": 56.55, "deceleration": 88.12, "rotation_down": 44.93, "downward_expansion": 24.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.941, 9.957709, 9.947505, 9.935422 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.968, "trend_reference": 9.9334, "distance_from_trend": 0.003483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.810144, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016091, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.030584, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002402, "excess_performance": -0.173294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001889, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016091, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002713, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021299, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002402, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.378436, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18994, "relative_activity": 0.648567, "balance": 7.378436, "dry_up": 4.125105, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.004237, "annualized_volatility": 0.035495, "from_high_reference": -0.007764, "from_low_reference": 0.025937 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.9334, "fair_value_reference": 9.810144, "structural_low": 9.716, "invalidation": "A 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null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001306, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003104, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011178, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003928, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 9.556, "volume": 10535, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"relative_strength": -13.747201, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.515685, "energy": 73.259715, "activity_lines": [ 9.997267, 9.976873, 9.939938, 9.934692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.929, "volume": 26595, "typical_volume": 11062.1, "trend": 9.9304, "fair_value": 9.805839, "relative_strength": -12.554665, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.299301, "energy": 45.071379, "activity_lines": [ 9.975733, 9.971818, 9.941057, 9.934716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.908, "volume": 24048, "typical_volume": 11014.1, "trend": 9.931233, "fair_value": 9.807, "relative_strength": -12.220484, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.091184, "energy": 14.436553, "activity_lines": [ 9.949667, 9.962727, 9.940667, 9.933271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.929, "volume": 413596, "typical_volume": 30086.05, "trend": 9.932433, "fair_value": 9.808371, "relative_strength": -12.229323, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.097486, "energy": 24.80793, "activity_lines": [ 9.935867, 9.956727, 9.942443, 9.933127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.968, "volume": 18994, "typical_volume": 29286.1, "trend": 9.9334, "fair_value": 9.810144, "relative_strength": -14.030584, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.579045, "energy": 26.640058, "activity_lines": [ 9.941, 9.957709, 9.947505, 9.935422 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }