{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c44b3ac0-9c11-469a-a118-57b0c87cabbc", "symbol": "BRBR", "name": "Bellring Brands LLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.685, "architecture_energy": 13.915, "architecture_maturity": 45.497, "architecture_confidence": 65.248, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.71, "rotation_up": 25.47, "upward_expansion": 24.42, "deceleration": 52.46, "rotation_down": 22.85, "downward_expansion": 48.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.195333, 12.012727, 11.695524, 12.818258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.56, "trend_reference": 15.014667, "distance_from_trend": -0.230086, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 47.195513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.755061, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -55.332225, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.407787, "excess_performance": -0.533412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230086, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281148, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.755061, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035832, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.553322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.18613, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.407787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.119285, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32053243, "relative_activity": 1.322226, "balance": 1.119285, "dry_up": 0.885562, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154711, "annualized_volatility": 0.923402, "from_high_reference": -0.731288, "from_low_reference": 0.478261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.014667, "fair_value_reference": 47.195513, "structural_low": 7.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019593, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021372, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.101418, "worst_return": -0.099873, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.138599, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.106161, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.312657, "worst_return": -0.066998, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.42922, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.333738, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.544007, "worst_return": -0.086524, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126032, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072163, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034037, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057605, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119979, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117056, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084431, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.790045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06699, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 38.1, "volume": 5086745, "typical_volume": 4496806.85, "trend": 34.267667, "fair_value": 26.924744, "relative_strength": 18.275839, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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12.014667, 10.813273, 11.98919, 13.84329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.12, "volume": 17438285, "typical_volume": 23564495.35, "trend": 16.487, "fair_value": 47.656154, "relative_strength": -56.022412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.985232, "energy": 28.798934, "activity_lines": [ 12.310667, 11.158727, 11.864667, 13.525161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.95, "volume": 17380518, "typical_volume": 23733143.85, "trend": 15.913333, "fair_value": 47.510641, "relative_strength": -50.970053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.735282, "energy": 25.540364, "activity_lines": [ 12.662667, 11.622182, 11.849048, 13.296968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.39, "volume": 18998652, "typical_volume": 23826540.85, "trend": 15.456667, "fair_value": 47.360577, "relative_strength": -51.745002, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.372487, "energy": 15.517166, "activity_lines": [ 12.595333, 11.924545, 11.801238, 13.069656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.56, "volume": 32053243, "typical_volume": 24241870.2, "trend": 15.014667, "fair_value": 47.195513, "relative_strength": -55.332225, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.685032, "energy": 13.915019, "activity_lines": [ 12.195333, 12.012727, 11.695524, 12.818258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }