{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c44bab0c-a21b-477f-919e-6db79501488a", "symbol": "CMGG", "name": "CI Munro Global Growth Equity Fund ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.9, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.607, "architecture_energy": 26.151, "architecture_maturity": 65.718, "architecture_confidence": 76.851, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.85, "rotation_up": 18.0, "upward_expansion": 52.77, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 36.92, "downward_expansion": 18.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.604, 46.473637, 46.324143, 45.104 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 46.110001, "trend_reference": 43.542167, "distance_from_trend": 0.058974, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.169391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.390137, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.477131, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.15535, "excess_performance": 0.034928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058974, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.390137, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087072, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052313, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.15535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.470178, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32900, "relative_activity": 0.479173, "balance": 0.470178, "dry_up": 0.584037, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042991, "annualized_volatility": 0.198547, "from_high_reference": -0.088555, "from_low_reference": 0.223077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.542167, "fair_value_reference": 33.169391, "structural_low": 37.939999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00254, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023863, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.117691, "worst_return": -0.11985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.097253, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.059167, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.168892, "worst_return": 0.010148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.175654, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.058067, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.204432, "worst_return": 0.115934, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.354421, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.220678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.462088, "worst_return": 0.246753, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061115, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057153, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103973, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109929, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064032, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047901, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139583, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020359, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.879999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15075.0, "trend": 19.076667, "fair_value": 19.276985, "relative_strength": 8.884614, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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47.374364, 45.150429, 43.821516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 48.400002, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 76490.0, "trend": 42.638833, "fair_value": 32.347917, "relative_strength": 4.903634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.356325, "energy": 70.660945, "activity_lines": [ 48.439335, 47.720365, 45.629667, 44.211129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.540001, "volume": 140000, "typical_volume": 80885.0, "trend": 42.900167, "fair_value": 32.521506, "relative_strength": 2.913562, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.126567, "energy": 61.135609, "activity_lines": [ 48.242668, 47.825637, 45.987143, 44.527334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.279999, "volume": 20300, "typical_volume": 80045.0, "trend": 43.074833, "fair_value": 32.683429, "relative_strength": -1.716842, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.84725, "energy": 37.294906, "activity_lines": [ 47.212, 47.452546, 46.099048, 44.680871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.189999, "volume": 60000, "typical_volume": 77755.0, "trend": 43.237167, "fair_value": 32.843558, "relative_strength": -2.036578, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.278534, "energy": 24.619498, "activity_lines": [ 46.305333, 47.070364, 46.181096, 44.817333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.959999, "volume": 47200, "typical_volume": 74585.0, "trend": 43.3895, "fair_value": 33.002596, "relative_strength": -1.955299, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.65904, "energy": 26.846745, "activity_lines": [ 45.658666, 46.652909, 46.211381, 44.928484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.110001, "volume": 32900, "typical_volume": 68660.0, "trend": 43.542167, "fair_value": 33.169391, "relative_strength": -2.477131, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.606732, "energy": 26.150964, "activity_lines": [ 45.604, 46.473637, 46.324143, 45.104 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }