{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "c44c72e3-b4a8-49f1-9257-4208d7e82cc1",
    "symbol": "SAJP",
    "name": "iShares MSCI Japan Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)",
    "exchange": "EBS",
    "country": "CH",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^SSMI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 64.714,
    "architecture_energy": 36.045,
    "architecture_maturity": 59.641,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.783,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.19,
        "rotation_up": 42.76,
        "upward_expansion": 63.76,
        "deceleration": 82.47,
        "rotation_down": 26.92,
        "downward_expansion": 20.43
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        9.701533,
        9.702182,
        9.590886,
        9.426508
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 9.971,
    "trend_reference": 9.240233,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.079085,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 7.314744,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.363137,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.846957,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.097523,
    "excess_performance": 0.01464,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079085,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054408,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.363137,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017139,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02847,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.086508,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.097523,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.418334,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 50516,
      "relative_activity": 0.890638,
      "balance": 1.418334,
      "dry_up": 1.149599,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.027781,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.219822,
      "from_high_reference": 0.0,
      "from_low_reference": 0.302547
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 9.240233,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.314744,
      "structural_low": 8.252,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.020864,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012015,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.099408,
        "worst_return": -0.050531,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.065684,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.029974,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.157454,
        "worst_return": -0.030183,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.01632,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.057698,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.155227,
        "worst_return": -0.146334,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.07336,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.020671,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.201775,
        "worst_return": -0.287611,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005474,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.040035,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-02-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006165,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-21",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.021382,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024025,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035227,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.015143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.033157,
        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "fair_value": 7.22041,
        "relative_strength": 3.815082,
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        "energy": 71.233232,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 63540.5,
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        "fair_value": 7.242199,
        "relative_strength": -2.023961,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.129626,
        "energy": 38.536965,
        "activity_lines": [
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          9.4632,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 9.532,
        "volume": 42350,
        "typical_volume": 60768.85,
        "trend": 9.153333,
        "fair_value": 7.264256,
        "relative_strength": 0.061716,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.197093,
        "energy": 31.25862,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.584533,
          9.644309,
          9.491919,
          9.344447
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.651,
        "volume": 77209,
        "typical_volume": 57405.25,
        "trend": 9.196733,
        "fair_value": 7.288436,
        "relative_strength": 1.034864,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.986245,
        "energy": 24.064517,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.588933,
          9.646455,
          9.528843,
          9.376555
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 9.971,
        "volume": 50516,
        "typical_volume": 56718.9,
        "trend": 9.240233,
        "fair_value": 7.314744,
        "relative_strength": 2.846957,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.713587,
        "energy": 36.044891,
        "activity_lines": [
          9.701533,
          9.702182,
          9.590886,
          9.426508
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}