{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c44e815d-48fa-4d87-84ad-c6ec1425c8d1", "symbol": "AMLP", "name": "ALPS ETF TRUST ALERIAN MLP ETF(POST REV SPLIT)", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.631, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.025, "architecture_energy": 72.318, "architecture_maturity": 10.164, "architecture_confidence": 75.546, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.06, "rotation_up": 72.66, "upward_expansion": 89.6, "deceleration": 44.8, "rotation_down": 9.12, "downward_expansion": 16.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.587333, 53.652909, 53.045712, 52.565907 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.36, "trend_reference": 51.670408, "distance_from_trend": 0.052053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.243353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.257072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.546916, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115263, "excess_performance": -0.010362, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052053, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051694, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.257072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002017, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005469, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004096, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115263, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.077905, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6751679, "relative_activity": 0.952481, "balance": 2.077905, "dry_up": 0.836662, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030663, "annualized_volatility": 0.149183, "from_high_reference": -0.022654, "from_low_reference": 0.293558 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.670408, "fair_value_reference": 43.243353, "structural_low": 48.520658, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.001724, "positive_rate": 0.536585, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": 0.009252, "regime_survival": 0.707317, "best_return": 0.118649, "worst_return": -0.128422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.032009, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.016168, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.143689, "worst_return": -0.06534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.064425, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.013146, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.179357, "worst_return": -0.003375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.332669, "energy": 17.693605, "activity_lines": [ 51.968667, 52.156178, 52.094608, 51.595888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.03, "volume": 5113530, "typical_volume": 7379308.85, "trend": 50.747832, "fair_value": 42.812009, "relative_strength": 2.857737, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.947155, "energy": 34.796247, "activity_lines": [ 52.712, 52.450909, 52.294549, 51.827245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.99, "volume": 4353597, "typical_volume": 7164060.45, "trend": 51.07472, "fair_value": 42.956029, "relative_strength": 5.2304, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.003763, "energy": 63.166925, "activity_lines": [ 53.648667, 52.886, 52.571732, 52.100933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.32, "volume": 7503967, "typical_volume": 7157602.15, "trend": 51.398182, "fair_value": 43.104532, "relative_strength": 4.718274, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.548964, "energy": 74.804356, "activity_lines": [ 54.407333, 53.364, 52.864203, 52.374822 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.36, "volume": 6751679, "typical_volume": 7088516.75, "trend": 51.670408, "fair_value": 43.243353, "relative_strength": -0.546916, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.025246, "energy": 72.318022, "activity_lines": [ 54.587333, 53.652909, 53.045712, 52.565907 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }