{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c45273ff-c365-4479-a463-88732ab57f5d", "symbol": "002418", "name": "Zhe Jiang Kangsheng Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.607, "architecture_energy": 74.262, "architecture_maturity": 23.515, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.31, "rotation_up": 17.08, "upward_expansion": 17.42, "deceleration": 39.3, "rotation_down": 65.32, "downward_expansion": 90.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.511333, 3.640727, 4.237286, 4.488968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.81, "trend_reference": 4.726667, "distance_from_trend": -0.193935, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.413846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116043, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.230106, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204593, "excess_performance": -0.211993, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193935, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070956, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116043, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.774372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204593, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.346717, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 242916457, "relative_activity": 0.576758, "balance": 0.346717, "dry_up": 0.503603, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134666, "annualized_volatility": 0.623271, "from_high_reference": -0.464888, "from_low_reference": 0.332168 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.726667, "fair_value_reference": 3.413846, "structural_low": 2.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.023779, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.010639, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.221557, "worst_return": -0.178322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035842, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.033734, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.461078, "worst_return": -0.422145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.074012, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.127559, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.51497, "worst_return": -0.401434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.546225, "energy": 79.827503, "activity_lines": [ 3.874667, 4.246182, 4.764762, 4.848839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.24, "volume": 197732883, "typical_volume": 438134582.8, "trend": 4.854333, "fair_value": 3.407756, "relative_strength": -30.921888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.307666, "energy": 85.946561, "activity_lines": [ 3.632, 3.983818, 4.60219, 4.742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.26, "volume": 224226909, "typical_volume": 437787838.85, "trend": 4.809, "fair_value": 3.408269, "relative_strength": -30.473459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.883831, "energy": 87.755311, "activity_lines": [ 3.456667, 3.780182, 4.449857, 4.63914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.43, "volume": 183544888, "typical_volume": 428361537.85, "trend": 4.758667, "fair_value": 3.409551, "relative_strength": -25.484599, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.056771, "energy": 84.492259, "activity_lines": [ 3.403333, 3.656182, 4.321857, 4.550172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.81, "volume": 242916457, "typical_volume": 421175925.7, "trend": 4.726667, "fair_value": 3.413846, "relative_strength": -21.230106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.607093, "energy": 74.26192, "activity_lines": [ 3.511333, 3.640727, 4.237286, 4.488968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }