{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c45bab6f-a2d3-46a4-83e2-060756b91db9", "symbol": "XLV", "name": "SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST STATE STREET HEALTH CARE SELECT SECTOR S", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.399, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.321, "architecture_energy": 57.098, "architecture_maturity": 10.582, "architecture_confidence": 69.577, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.8, "rotation_up": 72.94, "upward_expansion": 86.17, "deceleration": 50.56, "rotation_down": 14.79, "downward_expansion": 8.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 163.288667, 161.416595, 156.354365, 154.293048 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 165.68, "trend_reference": 153.084669, "distance_from_trend": 0.082277, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 141.186313, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173485, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.357813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.054851, "excess_performance": -0.070774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082277, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013347, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173485, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143061, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.013578, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100566, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.054851, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.462536, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58738829, "relative_activity": 1.147274, "balance": 2.462536, "dry_up": 0.959586, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037542, "annualized_volatility": 0.177151, "from_high_reference": -0.016911, "from_low_reference": 0.289677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 153.084669, "fair_value_reference": 141.186313, "structural_low": 141.351831, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.002543, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.002915, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.059747, "worst_return": -0.091367, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.021991, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.014478, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.091636, "worst_return": -0.080881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.047275, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.027685, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.081645, "worst_return": -0.062699, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.971643, "energy": 69.380471, "activity_lines": [ 160.630632, 157.231522, 152.716302, 152.15126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 162.57, "volume": 32925759, "typical_volume": 53088476.65, "trend": 152.528345, "fair_value": 140.723883, "relative_strength": 1.444094, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.909817, "energy": 77.894575, "activity_lines": [ 161.836667, 158.739372, 153.885438, 152.814503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 162.55, "volume": 54586320, "typical_volume": 51856451.9, "trend": 152.784217, "fair_value": 140.955078, "relative_strength": 0.268863, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.154042, "energy": 61.476463, "activity_lines": [ 162.114667, 159.914463, 155.002693, 153.461062 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 165.68, "volume": 58738829, "typical_volume": 51198598.6, "trend": 153.084669, "fair_value": 141.186313, "relative_strength": -1.357813, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.320558, "energy": 57.098016, "activity_lines": [ 163.288667, 161.416595, 156.354365, 154.293048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }