{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c45d991e-7480-42c1-b882-d584d78fbe93", "symbol": "ELTC", "name": "Bitwise Physical Litecoin ETC", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.381, "architecture_energy": 35.339, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.002, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.08, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 18.89, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 27.53, "downward_expansion": 61.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.300033, 3.242755, 3.391962, 3.529883 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 3.306, "trend_reference": 3.758633, "distance_from_trend": -0.120425, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.23716, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.469951, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.559771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121212, "excess_performance": -0.204095, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120425, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205934, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.469951, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068734, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.435598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121212, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.006556, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.004242, "balance": 0.006556, "dry_up": 0.001061, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056494, "annualized_volatility": 0.337854, "from_high_reference": -0.653894, "from_low_reference": 0.105316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.758633, "fair_value_reference": 6.23716, "structural_low": 2.991, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.037999, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.02806, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.450963, "worst_return": -0.362048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.102915, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.117016, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.520138, "worst_return": -0.346218, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038575, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010697, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.844419, "worst_return": -0.486617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.677865, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.248613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061792, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150917, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059317, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096094, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070793, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.450374, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.505, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 7.652867, "fair_value": 10.472271, "relative_strength": -18.834111, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper 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"down", "direction": -64.743242, "energy": 65.312455, "activity_lines": [ 3.187467, 3.227836, 3.475286, 3.645752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.402, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 472.3, "trend": 3.922983, "fair_value": 6.284074, "relative_strength": -43.682413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.322575, "energy": 50.913748, "activity_lines": [ 3.2661, 3.235109, 3.452286, 3.607527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.2585, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 472.0, "trend": 3.845, "fair_value": 6.260487, "relative_strength": -44.980941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.851807, "energy": 41.520564, "activity_lines": [ 3.284067, 3.229409, 3.418257, 3.564657 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.306, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 471.45, "trend": 3.758633, "fair_value": 6.23716, "relative_strength": -43.559771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.38123, "energy": 35.339468, "activity_lines": [ 3.300033, 3.242755, 3.391962, 3.529883 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }