{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4680f1a-5060-4302-a342-7f7aad6c4461", "symbol": "XG12", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global Circular Economy UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.719, "architecture_energy": 49.094, "architecture_maturity": 71.156, "architecture_confidence": 92.828, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.31, "rotation_up": 36.65, "upward_expansion": 62.72, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 27.97, "downward_expansion": 26.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.476334, 40.688455, 40.070048, 38.502151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 40.985001, "trend_reference": 36.368167, "distance_from_trend": 0.126947, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.314231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.398126, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.387435, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.295764, "excess_performance": 0.124872, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.126947, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10949, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.398126, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032015, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053874, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.295764, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.401737, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 250, "relative_activity": 1.062473, "balance": 3.401737, "dry_up": 0.778793, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025563, "annualized_volatility": 0.208112, "from_high_reference": -0.0266, "from_low_reference": 0.450283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.368167, "fair_value_reference": 29.314231, "structural_low": 31.629999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.03229, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027246, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.154173, "worst_return": 0.014426, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.204363, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289921, "worst_return": 0.118805, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.398676, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.244607, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.398676, "worst_return": 0.398676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001627, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.06769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003185, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013236, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042261, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005702, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108819, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.108196, "active": false }, { 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64.932418, "energy": 65.573314, "activity_lines": [ 41.079667, 40.700364, 38.548524, 36.810549 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.970001, "volume": 261, "typical_volume": 234.8, "trend": 34.975333, "fair_value": 29.037019, "relative_strength": 8.889711, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.572566, "energy": 65.076837, "activity_lines": [ 41.049668, 40.863637, 38.966572, 37.220022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.970001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 198.85, "trend": 35.351833, "fair_value": 29.108462, "relative_strength": 9.9399, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.259945, "energy": 62.26377, "activity_lines": [ 41.047334, 40.948273, 39.346405, 37.606775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.610001, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 198.85, "trend": 35.709334, "fair_value": 29.177596, "relative_strength": 8.661977, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.50942, "energy": 57.373034, "activity_lines": [ 40.850334, 40.927728, 39.65381, 37.946011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.369999, "volume": 481, "typical_volume": 222.8, "trend": 36.0255, "fair_value": 29.238878, "relative_strength": 4.463809, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.137162, "energy": 48.274922, "activity_lines": [ 40.339667, 40.662546, 39.803262, 38.182183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.985001, "volume": 250, "typical_volume": 235.3, "trend": 36.368167, "fair_value": 29.314231, "relative_strength": 5.387435, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.719001, "energy": 49.09408, "activity_lines": [ 40.476334, 40.688455, 40.070048, 38.502151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }