{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c469d7df-1232-49e1-b96b-3074b785cf9f", "symbol": "HDST-M", "name": "HBL - Hadasit Bio-Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.438, "architecture_energy": 21.48, "architecture_maturity": 58.726, "architecture_confidence": 73.258, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.36, "rotation_up": 14.18, "upward_expansion": 42.9, "deceleration": 87.39, "rotation_down": 45.12, "downward_expansion": 36.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.652, 0.678091, 0.694257, 0.670568 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.648, "trend_reference": 0.6069, "distance_from_trend": 0.067721, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.506596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.279125, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.499134, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.700787, "excess_performance": 0.671887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067721, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237898, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.279125, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03485, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.124991, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.700787, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542023, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2260, "relative_activity": 0.097064, "balance": 0.542023, "dry_up": 1.003397, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08084, "annualized_volatility": 0.923878, "from_high_reference": -0.237647, "from_low_reference": 1.16 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.6069, "fair_value_reference": 0.506596, "structural_low": 0.381, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034672, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.243892, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.416682, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.209524, "worst_return": -0.278261, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.449327, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.145599, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.58913, "worst_return": 0.309524, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.078571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.844526, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.078571, "worst_return": -0.078571, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029268, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.159049, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.23913, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05988, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.216561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.78487, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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25.492832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.757584, "energy": 45.786341, "activity_lines": [ 0.7196, 0.719055, 0.713686, 0.661531 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.6, "volume": 73754, "typical_volume": 27722.4, "trend": 0.584633, "fair_value": 0.513224, "relative_strength": 2.23449, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.429096, "energy": 12.740715, "activity_lines": [ 0.679133, 0.699491, 0.705195, 0.66311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.648, "volume": 17137, "typical_volume": 26568.0, "trend": 0.595767, "fair_value": 0.509878, "relative_strength": 13.060731, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.825218, "energy": 16.354086, "activity_lines": [ 0.663, 0.688091, 0.700262, 0.667198 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.648, "volume": 2260, "typical_volume": 23283.65, "trend": 0.6069, "fair_value": 0.506596, "relative_strength": 12.499134, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.437988, "energy": 21.480318, "activity_lines": [ 0.652, 0.678091, 0.694257, 0.670568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }