{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c46d79c2-0c7b-4100-8eda-e97dd65621aa", "symbol": "300075", "name": "Beijing eGOVA Co,. Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.162, "architecture_energy": 41.526, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.4, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.41, "rotation_up": 26.18, "upward_expansion": 17.98, "deceleration": 66.91, "rotation_down": 45.73, "downward_expansion": 70.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.865333, 10.782545, 11.511905, 12.075204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.08, "trend_reference": 12.992, "distance_from_trend": -0.147167, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.907789, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.303486, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.492473, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.251351, "excess_performance": -0.258751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147167, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106281, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.303486, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170877, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.264925, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002578, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.146815, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71197668, "relative_activity": 1.537689, "balance": 0.146815, "dry_up": 1.539322, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085115, "annualized_volatility": 0.353756, "from_high_reference": -0.432958, "from_low_reference": 0.113568 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.992, "fair_value_reference": 15.907789, "structural_low": 9.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.011687, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00535, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.209078, "worst_return": -0.282852, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04052, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000929, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.320836, "worst_return": -0.15731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041276, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.113091, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.21513, "worst_return": -0.160228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.571368, "energy": 84.670592, "activity_lines": [ 10.436, 11.019636, 11.899429, 12.530688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.26, "volume": 80535862, "typical_volume": 43645170.7, "trend": 13.251, "fair_value": 16.014191, "relative_strength": -31.323102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.127779, "energy": 67.231554, "activity_lines": [ 10.348, 10.769273, 11.693667, 12.327785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.39, "volume": 68150157, "typical_volume": 45141811.95, "trend": 13.134, "fair_value": 15.960131, "relative_strength": -21.61077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.119916, "energy": 51.641582, "activity_lines": [ 10.702667, 10.787091, 11.612381, 12.20772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.08, "volume": 71197668, "typical_volume": 46301731.2, "trend": 12.992, "fair_value": 15.907789, "relative_strength": -26.492473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.161821, "energy": 41.525876, "activity_lines": [ 10.865333, 10.782545, 11.511905, 12.075204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }