{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4729d51-eb55-40c3-bb4e-4b3dcdf2f118", "symbol": "601399", "name": "SINOMACH HEAVY EQUIPMENT GROUP CO.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.812, "architecture_energy": 65.277, "architecture_maturity": 60.998, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 26.88, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.4, "rotation_down": 57.37, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.236, 3.300909, 3.564619, 3.848602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.32, "trend_reference": 4.299333, "distance_from_trend": -0.227787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.320705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.000212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.874394, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.351562, "excess_performance": -0.308359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.227787, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06285, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.000212, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.351562, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.288542, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 376662328, "relative_activity": 1.054961, "balance": 0.288542, "dry_up": 1.131061, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071131, "annualized_volatility": 0.306601, "from_high_reference": -0.500752, "from_low_reference": 0.114094 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.299333, "fair_value_reference": 3.320705, "structural_low": 2.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.006898, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.242915, "worst_return": -0.164345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014431, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017205, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.166023, "worst_return": -0.109677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005484, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100386, "worst_return": -0.133705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.826882, "energy": 89.118622, "activity_lines": [ 3.404667, 3.573273, 3.874333, 4.171355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.05, "volume": 392392775, "typical_volume": 374141087.35, "trend": 4.488667, "fair_value": 3.317756, "relative_strength": -21.385202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.79602, "energy": 92.476983, "activity_lines": [ 3.261333, 3.448727, 3.768095, 4.073957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.1, "volume": 430590744, "typical_volume": 364844025.05, "trend": 4.406333, "fair_value": 3.317756, "relative_strength": -21.062552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.708376, "energy": 89.037576, "activity_lines": [ 3.177333, 3.356545, 3.67719, 3.984366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.33, "volume": 415685663, "typical_volume": 359351096.3, "trend": 4.348, "fair_value": 3.319295, "relative_strength": -15.448563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.010371, "energy": 72.873667, "activity_lines": [ 3.207333, 3.324182, 3.617524, 3.914925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.32, "volume": 376662328, "typical_volume": 357038992.3, "trend": 4.299333, "fair_value": 3.320705, "relative_strength": -17.874394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.812499, "energy": 65.277205, "activity_lines": [ 3.236, 3.300909, 3.564619, 3.848602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }