{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4795e99-bd22-4c96-a670-f55a3e8b23ab", "symbol": "603955", "name": "Daqian Ecology&Environment Group Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.987, "architecture_energy": 54.821, "architecture_maturity": 97.342, "architecture_confidence": 91.986, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 20.98, "upward_expansion": 8.65, "deceleration": 58.28, "rotation_down": 59.49, "downward_expansion": 81.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.011333, 19.489454, 21.289619, 22.715505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.33, "trend_reference": 24.747, "distance_from_trend": -0.178486, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.732745, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019426, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.848437, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.313176, "excess_performance": -0.269972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178486, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125311, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019426, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288484, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0542, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.313176, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9468152, "relative_activity": 1.112736, "balance": 0.805713, "dry_up": 1.372539, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114912, "annualized_volatility": 0.431816, "from_high_reference": -0.548724, "from_low_reference": 0.232121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.747, "fair_value_reference": 20.732745, "structural_low": 16.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.03123, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.021645, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.510845, "worst_return": -0.180328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.018853, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.03582, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.101096, "worst_return": -0.365308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.133296, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.098201, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.087698, "worst_return": -0.343725, "sufficient": true }, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.653554, "energy": 89.959938, "activity_lines": [ 19.214666, 20.732364, 22.580381, 23.980129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.93, "volume": 11253600, "typical_volume": 8007798.1, "trend": 25.390334, "fair_value": 20.695959, "relative_strength": -40.164714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.284372, "energy": 90.704277, "activity_lines": [ 18.275333, 19.844909, 21.912381, 23.405613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.4, "volume": 15646862, "typical_volume": 8408987.7, "trend": 25.036334, "fair_value": 20.709835, "relative_strength": -30.996753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.265317, "energy": 72.704098, "activity_lines": [ 18.472, 19.551818, 21.53681, 23.01914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.33, "volume": 9468152, "typical_volume": 8508891.3, "trend": 24.747, "fair_value": 20.732745, "relative_strength": -28.848437, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.986621, "energy": 54.820599, "activity_lines": [ 19.011333, 19.489454, 21.289619, 22.715505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }