{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4828437-5805-44b1-883b-db073528fb6f", "symbol": "VET", "name": "Vermilion Energy Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 52.272, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 1.311, "architecture_energy": 16.303, "architecture_maturity": 65.509, "architecture_confidence": 68.155, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.49, "rotation_up": 49.91, "upward_expansion": 33.16, "deceleration": 47.05, "rotation_down": 19.75, "downward_expansion": 24.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.988, 10.475342, 10.849777, 11.106113 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.86, "trend_reference": 11.06425, "distance_from_trend": -0.01846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.617322, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.112932, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.082447, "excess_performance": -0.043178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01846, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062484, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078573, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001129, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.082447, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6463410, "relative_activity": 0.794595, "balance": 0.94197, "dry_up": 1.010345, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105742, "annualized_volatility": 0.533115, "from_high_reference": -0.260475, "from_low_reference": 0.614131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.06425, "fair_value_reference": 9.617322, "structural_low": 8.73, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029165, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.059441, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.326957, "worst_return": -0.091211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.08149, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.171463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.613913, "worst_return": -0.118165, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00376, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.153217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.958261, "worst_return": -0.182332, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138996, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.200803, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073725, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"volume": 5109446, "typical_volume": 9437314.55, "trend": 10.747473, "fair_value": 9.644075, "relative_strength": -4.591921, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.616925, "energy": 63.201195, "activity_lines": [ 9.476667, 9.986098, 10.893298, 11.011586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.26, "volume": 11358794, "typical_volume": 9084048.15, "trend": 10.854871, "fair_value": 9.638256, "relative_strength": 9.543971, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.137002, "energy": 26.641608, "activity_lines": [ 10.073333, 10.114542, 10.871347, 11.044652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.92, "volume": 9941805, "typical_volume": 8975930.0, "trend": 10.972478, "fair_value": 9.632593, "relative_strength": 14.14925, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.723535, "energy": 13.055507, "activity_lines": [ 10.794667, 10.388869, 10.911603, 11.11337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.86, "volume": 6463410, "typical_volume": 8134217.15, "trend": 11.06425, "fair_value": 9.617322, "relative_strength": 0.112932, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.31081, "energy": 16.303074, "activity_lines": [ 10.988, 10.475342, 10.849777, 11.106113 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }