{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4887977-bc73-46a9-ad67-3b1fbe3991dc", "symbol": "MCY", "name": "Mercury NZ Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.48, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.794, "architecture_energy": 13.65, "architecture_maturity": 28.931, "architecture_confidence": 49.841, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.07, "rotation_up": 35.11, "upward_expansion": 59.03, "deceleration": 61.51, "rotation_down": 24.18, "downward_expansion": 16.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.576667, 5.576182, 5.587238, 5.542023 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.55, "trend_reference": 5.482363, "distance_from_trend": 0.012337, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.468247, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.014951, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.741789, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.02318, "excess_performance": -0.040526, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012337, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006105, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.014951, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000714, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047418, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02318, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.821665, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62684, "relative_activity": 2.151808, "balance": 1.821665, "dry_up": 0.899725, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05149, "annualized_volatility": 0.240198, "from_high_reference": -0.105123, "from_low_reference": 0.101118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.482363, "fair_value_reference": 5.468247, "structural_low": 5.040333, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.004655, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.023615, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.079829, "worst_return": -0.068643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.024348, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.013132, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.105289, "worst_return": -0.103439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003791, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.039402, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.1017, "worst_return": -0.15683, 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30.249488, "energy": 16.299225, "activity_lines": [ 5.608, 5.632, 5.549927, 5.502753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.44, "volume": 2375, "typical_volume": 32117.1, "trend": 5.46357, "fair_value": 5.459853, "relative_strength": -2.238162, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.010519, "energy": 15.729404, "activity_lines": [ 5.532667, 5.599364, 5.54701, 5.501013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.6, "volume": 16828, "typical_volume": 30639.35, "trend": 5.466474, "fair_value": 5.461565, "relative_strength": 1.08076, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.638664, "energy": 16.779322, "activity_lines": [ 5.539333, 5.596182, 5.558554, 5.509815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.79, "volume": 16855, "typical_volume": 29939.65, "trend": 5.480306, "fair_value": 5.465126, "relative_strength": 4.520344, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.225146, "energy": 20.738926, "activity_lines": [ 5.617333, 5.626727, 5.585762, 5.530687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.56, "volume": 12842, "typical_volume": 29670.3, "trend": 5.482534, "fair_value": 5.466007, "relative_strength": 0.625519, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.11078, "energy": 15.131568, "activity_lines": [ 5.606, 5.610545, 5.588714, 5.535829 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.51, "volume": 12458, "typical_volume": 28663.75, "trend": 5.481454, "fair_value": 5.467028, "relative_strength": -2.475459, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.536077, "energy": 14.350776, "activity_lines": [ 5.586667, 5.589455, 5.58669, 5.537601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.55, "volume": 62684, "typical_volume": 29130.85, "trend": 5.482363, "fair_value": 5.468247, "relative_strength": -4.741789, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.793619, "energy": 13.649535, "activity_lines": [ 5.576667, 5.576182, 5.587238, 5.542023 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }