{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c49d2d55-ebf0-4941-bcbd-72435b75ad7c", "symbol": "EXFY", "name": "Expensify Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 247, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 7, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 79.387, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 89.97, "composite_score": 79.727, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_color": "green", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.746, "architecture_energy": 76.014, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.961, "architecture_age_weeks": 3, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.746, "energy": 76.014, "maturity": 26.0, "confidence": 85.961, "confirmation": 98.153, "age_weeks": 3, "candidate": null, "candidate_weeks": 0, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Activity Lines are positively ordered above the 30-week Trend Line, with rising slopes and price acceptance. Fan expansion measures the energy of the move; contraction inside this regime warns that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.71, "rotation_up": 75.77, "upward_expansion": 92.38, "deceleration": 46.83, "rotation_down": 12.04, "downward_expansion": 16.71 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 1.796667, "10": 1.697091, "20": 1.459634, "30": 1.33741 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.149922, "10": 1.43466, "20": 1.196264, "30": 0.716473 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 2.188299, "fan_width_change_4": 0.233794, "fan_width_percentile": 0.884615, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.659876, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.335923, "price_acceptance": 0.833333, "current_fan_distance_atr": 0.11118, "accepted_above": 0.833333, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.25 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 79/100." }, "latest_close": 1.82, "sma_30": 1.257583, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.44722, "sma_30_slope": 0.014521, "fair_value": 2.162131, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158238, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.416691, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 15.992277, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 55.26094, "range_position_52": 0.787353, "returns": { "13": 0.625, "26": 0.255172, "52": -0.080808 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.169852, "52": -0.295643 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 60.1, "2": 44.0, "3": 35.41, "4": 0.0 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.44722, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": true, "value": 0.014521, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158238, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.416691, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.159923, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.552609, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.255172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.938904, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2883307, "ratio_20": 0.526969, "up_down_ratio_13": 3.938904, "dry_up_ratio": 0.888381, "accumulation_weeks": 5, "distribution_weeks": 1 }, "base": { "high_26": 2.02, "low_26": 0.6907, "depth": 0.658069, "compression": 0.643196, "breakout_distance": -0.09901 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.115313, "annualized_volatility": 0.803675, "drawdown_from_52_high": 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"mansfield_rs": 15.130411, "stage": 1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.606296, "architecture_energy": 89.755352, "activity_5": 1.774, "activity_10": 1.589818, "activity_20": 1.350075, "activity_30": 1.269335 }, { "week": "2026-07-24", "open": 1.83, "high": 1.835, "low": 1.682, "close": 1.72, "volume": 3791752, "sma_30": 1.24525, "fair_value_history": 2.188606, "mansfield_rs": 10.031287, "stage": 1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.277088, "architecture_energy": 84.09987, "activity_5": 1.774, "activity_10": 1.639636, "activity_20": 1.401897, "activity_30": 1.300329 }, { "week": "2026-07-31", "open": 1.73, "high": 1.895, "low": 1.73, "close": 1.82, "volume": 2883307, "sma_30": 1.257583, "fair_value_history": 2.162131, "mansfield_rs": 15.992277, "stage": 1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.745566, "architecture_energy": 76.014403, "activity_5": 1.796667, "activity_10": 1.697091, "activity_20": 1.459634, "activity_30": 1.33741 } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.002789, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000531, "stage_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.743316, "worst_return": -0.174107, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.178365, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.158734, "stage_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.785714, "worst_return": -0.188889, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.06237, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000384, "stage_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.450893, "worst_return": -0.326154, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.022321, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.149784, "stage_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022321, "worst_return": -0.022321, "sufficient": false } ], "stage_ledger": [ { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2024-07-05", "weeks": 60, "return": -0.77454 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-05-09", "weeks": 44, "return": 0.0625 }, { "stage": 4, "name": "Declining", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2026-06-12", "weeks": 57, "return": -0.468354 }, { "stage": 1, "name": "Basing", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 7, "return": 0.166667, "active": true } ], "architecture_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.093782, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.079307, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.058824, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041176, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.051965, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.399177, "worst_return": -0.319018, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.048543, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.126621, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.341564, "worst_return": -0.43865, "sufficient": false }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.246914, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.409149, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.246914, "worst_return": -0.246914, "sufficient": false } ], "architecture_ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2024-07-05", "weeks": 48, "return": -0.674058, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "weeks": 6, "return": 0.075893, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "weeks": 8, "return": -0.251029, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "weeks": 2, "return": -0.065574, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "weeks": 3, "return": 0.470588, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-10", "weeks": 8, "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "weeks": 4, "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "weeks": 6, "return": -0.153646, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "weeks": 3, "return": -0.131833, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "weeks": 5, "return": -0.147482, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-05-22", "weeks": 53, "return": -0.486486, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "weeks": 3, "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "weeks": 4, "return": 0.211538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "weeks": 3, "return": -0.005464, "active": true } ] } }