{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c49fddb1-5e92-4603-9703-6eb3f8fe5537", "symbol": "KFAST-B", "name": "K-Fast Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.66, "architecture_energy": 59.279, "architecture_maturity": 9.512, "architecture_confidence": 51.421, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.99, "rotation_up": 66.63, "upward_expansion": 60.79, "deceleration": 23.8, "rotation_down": 16.93, "downward_expansion": 21.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.668, 11.278727, 10.979571, 10.833892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.64, "trend_reference": 10.889667, "distance_from_trend": 0.068903, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.16859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.280086, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.250477, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.025126, "excess_performance": -0.08662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068903, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055645, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.280086, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111992, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124777, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.280576, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 244179, "relative_activity": 0.738481, "balance": 3.280576, "dry_up": 1.00946, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067407, "annualized_volatility": 0.328319, "from_high_reference": -0.301321, "from_low_reference": 0.267974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.889667, "fair_value_reference": 16.16859, "structural_low": 9.18, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.047127, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.065121, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.024554, "worst_return": -0.120158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.130619, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.209781, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095982, "worst_return": -0.304005, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.245366, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.294121, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.187285, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.177171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.180876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043539, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018893, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 11.58, "volume": 350185, "typical_volume": 976422.1, "trend": 10.965667, "fair_value": 16.278205, "relative_strength": -15.799569, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.674972, "energy": 47.227895, "activity_lines": [ 11.312, 10.960909, 10.760476, 10.731011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.86, "volume": 490308, "typical_volume": 697950.2, "trend": 10.939667, "fair_value": 16.220256, "relative_strength": -13.983109, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.222192, "energy": 60.707763, "activity_lines": [ 11.572, 11.147273, 10.885, 10.78871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.64, "volume": 244179, "typical_volume": 330650.2, "trend": 10.889667, "fair_value": 16.16859, "relative_strength": -16.250477, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.659524, "energy": 59.279348, "activity_lines": [ 11.668, 11.278727, 10.979571, 10.833892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }