{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4b03072-647d-413d-9deb-096aa45b2005", "symbol": "XCTE", "name": "Xtrackers Harvest MSCI China Tech 100 UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 95.064, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.432, "architecture_energy": 28.544, "architecture_maturity": 4.917, "architecture_confidence": 46.995, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.49, "rotation_up": 18.24, "upward_expansion": 19.83, "deceleration": 54.46, "rotation_down": 59.41, "downward_expansion": 44.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.763333, 31.007273, 31.367738, 31.235408 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.535, "trend_reference": 31.177667, "distance_from_trend": 0.011461, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.268743, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.200476, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.641578, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030219, "excess_performance": -0.140673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011461, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000956, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.200476, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061552, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136416, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030219, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.669329, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1530, "relative_activity": 0.295552, "balance": 0.669329, "dry_up": 0.582315, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034126, "annualized_volatility": 0.205595, "from_high_reference": -0.088847, "from_low_reference": 0.153227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.177667, "fair_value_reference": 26.268743, "structural_low": 28.860001, "invalidation": "A 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32.076454, 31.58919, 31.412688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 31.325001, "volume": 158, "typical_volume": 5492.45, "trend": 31.287, "fair_value": 26.110827, "relative_strength": -13.792672, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.178047, "energy": 18.066173, "activity_lines": [ 31.741666, 31.944818, 31.605024, 31.414935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.475, "volume": 4645, "typical_volume": 5559.1, "trend": 31.310667, "fair_value": 26.154993, "relative_strength": -12.913032, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.589779, "energy": 15.689486, "activity_lines": [ 31.625, 31.842545, 31.631143, 31.427064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.725, "volume": 1079, "typical_volume": 5428.05, "trend": 31.276333, "fair_value": 26.187942, "relative_strength": -16.334708, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.540658, "energy": 32.855764, "activity_lines": [ 30.963333, 31.426545, 31.488452, 31.324763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.469999, "volume": 7163, "typical_volume": 5222.9, "trend": 31.263333, "fair_value": 26.213199, "relative_strength": -13.871661, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.177514, "energy": 32.758876, "activity_lines": [ 30.660666, 31.195727, 31.419809, 31.272742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.360001, "volume": 2286, "typical_volume": 5214.9, "trend": 31.210333, "fair_value": 26.237205, "relative_strength": -14.567775, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.313608, "energy": 42.228515, "activity_lines": [ 30.475333, 30.980091, 31.336309, 31.214462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.535, "volume": 1530, "typical_volume": 5176.75, "trend": 31.177667, "fair_value": 26.268743, "relative_strength": -13.641578, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.432183, "energy": 28.543961, "activity_lines": [ 30.763333, 31.007273, 31.367738, 31.235408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }