{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4b1f008-c330-41e7-be17-633f13f36a2e", "symbol": "ESBA", "name": "Empire State Realty OP LP ES", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.285, "architecture_energy": 40.1, "architecture_maturity": 21.916, "architecture_confidence": 91.817, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.78, "rotation_up": 17.97, "upward_expansion": 11.0, "deceleration": 37.16, "rotation_down": 55.67, "downward_expansion": 77.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.03302, 5.181425, 5.246607, 5.288397 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.7902, "trend_reference": 5.467967, "distance_from_trend": -0.123952, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.882539, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.29192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.267104, "excess_performance": -0.392729, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123952, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073438, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.302919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267104, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.655491, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13959, "relative_activity": 0.463213, "balance": 0.655491, "dry_up": 0.88357, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133217, "annualized_volatility": 0.333653, "from_high_reference": -0.412019, "from_low_reference": 0.036992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.467967, "fair_value_reference": 7.882539, "structural_low": 4.619321, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.056575, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.040583, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.183871, "worst_return": -0.200558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.086556, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.160511, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.280365, "worst_return": -0.302919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.147454, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.086698, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.320522, "worst_return": -0.267007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.272795, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.294154, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.740197, "worst_return": -0.381419, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133277, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017011, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027645, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061876, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041774, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.098891, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.731086, "energy": 8.313593, "activity_lines": [ 5.416706, 5.362738, 5.309084, 5.412033 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.45, "volume": 9222, "typical_volume": 27738.0, "trend": 5.587938, "fair_value": 7.942494, "relative_strength": -19.898483, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.627604, "energy": 12.216911, "activity_lines": [ 5.454, 5.379158, 5.325592, 5.401499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.3201, "volume": 50956, "typical_volume": 28562.9, "trend": 5.560973, "fair_value": 7.926242, "relative_strength": -20.607543, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.781336, "energy": 11.548885, "activity_lines": [ 5.430033, 5.374016, 5.3322, 5.384219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.801, "volume": 32369, "typical_volume": 29919.6, "trend": 5.515472, "fair_value": 7.901666, "relative_strength": -28.437706, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.044612, "energy": 25.4035, "activity_lines": [ 5.215693, 5.273129, 5.289404, 5.335188 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.7902, "volume": 13959, "typical_volume": 30135.15, "trend": 5.467967, "fair_value": 7.882539, "relative_strength": -30.29192, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.285471, "energy": 40.099806, "activity_lines": [ 5.03302, 5.181425, 5.246607, 5.288397 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }