{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4b9548b-f314-461c-a2a5-45535340a42f", "symbol": "PBNV", "name": "PGIM S&P 500 BUFFER 20 ETF - NOVEMBER", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 57.478, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.98, "architecture_energy": 72.889, "architecture_maturity": 48.437, "architecture_confidence": 79.099, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.84, "rotation_up": 62.91, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 60.07, "rotation_down": 26.5, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.202, 31.079824, 30.867933, 30.536583 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.5185, "trend_reference": 30.15412, "distance_from_trend": 0.045247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.943255, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127947, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.296605, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.063966, "excess_performance": -0.061659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045247, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019932, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127947, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017537, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052966, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005311, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.322039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14662, "relative_activity": 0.699525, "balance": 3.322039, "dry_up": 0.734234, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007959, "annualized_volatility": 0.060253, "from_high_reference": -0.000365, "from_low_reference": 0.111039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.15412, "fair_value_reference": 27.943255, "structural_low": 28.47, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003908, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.000424, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.018647, "worst_return": -0.012122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.009293, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002525, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.024373, "worst_return": -0.005787, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.052641, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.041562, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.052641, "worst_return": 0.052641, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.525772, "energy": 85.130686, "activity_lines": [ 30.960187, 30.8809, 30.531584, 30.244051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.96, "volume": 8103, "typical_volume": 19562.75, "trend": 29.984277, "fair_value": 27.856696, "relative_strength": -3.713944, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.629394, "energy": 80.89453, "activity_lines": [ 30.976353, 30.907042, 30.610323, 30.310581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.9825, "volume": 13415, "typical_volume": 19791.35, "trend": 30.033027, "fair_value": 27.884115, "relative_strength": -2.944707, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.303686, "energy": 78.422617, "activity_lines": [ 30.987813, 30.930902, 30.683824, 30.374982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.11, "volume": 25378, "typical_volume": 20835.4, "trend": 30.090657, "fair_value": 27.912166, "relative_strength": -3.426868, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.061032, "energy": 67.586397, "activity_lines": [ 31.038773, 30.971389, 30.761287, 30.444465 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.5185, "volume": 14662, "typical_volume": 20959.95, "trend": 30.15412, "fair_value": 27.943255, "relative_strength": -5.296605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.980383, "energy": 72.889443, "activity_lines": [ 31.202, 31.079824, 30.867933, 30.536583 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }