{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4b9fc77-d866-40de-b640-c9429ece23d5", "symbol": "8499", "name": "Top Bright Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.9, "architecture_energy": 45.263, "architecture_maturity": 6.605, "architecture_confidence": 65.911, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.28, "rotation_up": 17.6, "upward_expansion": 16.78, "deceleration": 45.03, "rotation_down": 59.18, "downward_expansion": 53.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 258.6, 266.695255, 274.987514, 273.90693 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 265.0, "trend_reference": 273.917787, "distance_from_trend": -0.032556, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 177.669522, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.491533, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.505085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017682, "excess_performance": -0.363414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032556, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047763, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.491533, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390989, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.315051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.03753, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108050, "relative_activity": 0.210419, "balance": 1.03753, "dry_up": 0.430319, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096826, "annualized_volatility": 0.444596, "from_high_reference": -0.336336, "from_low_reference": 0.167401 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 273.917787, "fair_value_reference": 177.669522, "structural_low": 227.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013333, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.048673, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.032967, "worst_return": -0.025641, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022563, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.035555, "worst_return": 0.004274, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.017609, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.158152, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.41453, "worst_return": -0.088889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163347, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.182773, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045801, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110553, "active": false }, { 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"trend": 279.224287, "fair_value": 174.812432, "relative_strength": -38.748591, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.002639, "energy": 39.090508, "activity_lines": [ 263.885209, 276.560968, 278.729009, 276.913213 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 258.0, "volume": 150311, "typical_volume": 546140.8, "trend": 277.095167, "fair_value": 175.738423, "relative_strength": -33.218002, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.744296, "energy": 37.740774, "activity_lines": [ 257.966667, 271.805073, 277.138591, 275.543904 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 262.0, "volume": 191499, "typical_volume": 528760.35, "trend": 275.277929, "fair_value": 176.686469, "relative_strength": -33.850559, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.535416, "energy": 46.237948, "activity_lines": [ 256.633333, 268.769569, 275.95039, 274.570022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 265.0, "volume": 108050, "typical_volume": 513500.35, "trend": 273.917787, "fair_value": 177.669522, "relative_strength": -31.505085, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.899806, "energy": 45.263104, "activity_lines": [ 258.6, 266.695255, 274.987514, 273.90693 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }