{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4bb172c-4e40-4fb3-a3c0-eca1480ec2c5", "symbol": "4324", "name": "Banan Real Estate Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.839, "architecture_energy": 54.164, "architecture_maturity": 38.487, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.07, "rotation_up": 23.19, "upward_expansion": 8.3, "deceleration": 55.13, "rotation_down": 54.32, "downward_expansion": 79.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.032, 3.061091, 3.13417, 3.213046 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.99, "trend_reference": 3.329613, "distance_from_trend": -0.101998, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.523108, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.33895, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.846312, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.178543, "excess_performance": -0.146714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101998, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.33895, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038001, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000531, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178543, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.453589, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 877659, "relative_activity": 0.835169, "balance": 0.453589, "dry_up": 0.820925, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03979, "annualized_volatility": 0.14982, "from_high_reference": -0.427104, "from_low_reference": 0.031034 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.329613, "fair_value_reference": 4.523108, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.022487, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013028, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.00639, "worst_return": -0.038585, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044728, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 8.005871, "volume": 1051955, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 7.957351, "volume": 11804380, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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-66.229135, "energy": 49.016949, "activity_lines": [ 3.096, 3.103909, 3.182409, 3.260868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.99, "volume": 983342, "typical_volume": 1010603.55, "trend": 3.350287, "fair_value": 4.54073, "relative_strength": -16.699055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.972171, "energy": 52.714466, "activity_lines": [ 3.062667, 3.080818, 3.157519, 3.23629 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.99, "volume": 877659, "typical_volume": 1050876.05, "trend": 3.329613, "fair_value": 4.523108, "relative_strength": -17.846312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.839148, "energy": 54.16435, "activity_lines": [ 3.032, 3.061091, 3.13417, 3.213046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }