{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4be420c-297d-4770-8cdc-bb2192706b68", "symbol": "B90", "name": "B90 Holdings PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 25.207, "architecture_energy": 36.728, "architecture_maturity": 14.408, "architecture_confidence": 64.638, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.96, "rotation_up": 61.9, "upward_expansion": 46.3, "deceleration": 18.59, "rotation_down": 16.09, "downward_expansion": 25.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.028967, 0.027855, 0.026371, 0.026824 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.03, "trend_reference": 0.028433, "distance_from_trend": 0.0551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.035172, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.147044, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.912056, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.15493, "excess_performance": -0.206165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146573, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.147044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.242667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140773, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15493, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.959038, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 644517, "relative_activity": 0.523362, "balance": 1.959038, "dry_up": 0.689924, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13959, "annualized_volatility": 0.657664, "from_high_reference": -0.344262, "from_low_reference": 0.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028433, "fair_value_reference": 0.035172, "structural_low": 0.018, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009657, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.148936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.043355, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.518519, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.128003, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.147932, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.518519, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.323529, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.388718, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.6875, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034091, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152941, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.084746, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082353, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072464, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.171875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.06875, "volume": 163420, "typical_volume": 920138.2, "trend": 0.066058, "fair_value": 0.072476, "relative_strength": 34.558211, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -16.057683, "energy": 11.920572, "activity_lines": [ 0.026267, 0.025345, 0.025248, 0.026983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.028, "volume": 1473283, "typical_volume": 1167180.8, "trend": 0.029717, "fair_value": 0.035947, "relative_strength": -21.209789, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.078665, "energy": 10.203667, "activity_lines": [ 0.027, 0.025945, 0.025419, 0.026841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0285, "volume": 1035483, "typical_volume": 1215606.35, "trend": 0.02925, "fair_value": 0.035691, "relative_strength": -20.402211, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.721153, "energy": 11.152262, "activity_lines": [ 0.027633, 0.026564, 0.025657, 0.026762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 245266, "typical_volume": 1222442.65, "trend": 0.0288, "fair_value": 0.035412, "relative_strength": -19.692474, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.07293, "energy": 16.887936, "activity_lines": [ 0.028233, 0.027173, 0.02596, 0.026746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.03, "volume": 644517, "typical_volume": 1231493.25, "trend": 0.028433, "fair_value": 0.035172, "relative_strength": -16.912056, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.207433, "energy": 36.727534, "activity_lines": [ 0.028967, 0.027855, 0.026371, 0.026824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }