{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4c350d0-3552-4222-946e-26add0a8c21c", "symbol": "BRA", "name": "Amundi MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.625, "architecture_energy": 20.869, "architecture_maturity": 23.474, "architecture_confidence": 62.069, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.02, "rotation_up": 38.73, "upward_expansion": 26.0, "deceleration": 39.68, "rotation_down": 22.45, "downward_expansion": 48.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.389333, 25.136727, 25.246238, 25.436 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.014999, "trend_reference": 25.501333, "distance_from_trend": -0.019071, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.673731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.327638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016126, "excess_performance": -0.187018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040397, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.168109, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.067094, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114670, "relative_activity": 1.152444, "balance": 2.067094, "dry_up": 1.788065, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035579, "annualized_volatility": 0.209199, "from_high_reference": -0.124584, "from_low_reference": 0.373243 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.501333, "fair_value_reference": 20.673731, "structural_low": 23.790001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001486, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013395, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.088393, "worst_return": -0.083371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054179, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.033209, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.164063, "worst_return": -0.095326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044332, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.002058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128, "worst_return": -0.085259, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.365, "volume": 129804, "typical_volume": 86557.7, "trend": 25.0355, "fair_value": 20.537827, "relative_strength": -4.51962, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.779296, "energy": 18.597922, "activity_lines": [ 24.803334, 24.679637, 25.325357, 25.392377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.105, "volume": 60114, "typical_volume": 81197.05, "trend": 25.157333, "fair_value": 20.569397, "relative_strength": -4.290018, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.853115, "energy": 12.839638, "activity_lines": [ 24.964334, 24.727273, 25.274572, 25.39686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.73, "volume": 435477, "typical_volume": 95487.25, "trend": 25.301167, "fair_value": 20.603147, "relative_strength": -1.978672, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.175886, "energy": 16.593391, "activity_lines": [ 25.286667, 24.919909, 25.289762, 25.433807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.75, "volume": 101400, "typical_volume": 97004.15, "trend": 25.429833, "fair_value": 20.639429, "relative_strength": -2.765775, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.013757, "energy": 21.669314, "activity_lines": [ 25.496667, 25.100455, 25.304619, 25.462764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.014999, "volume": 114670, "typical_volume": 99501.55, "trend": 25.501333, "fair_value": 20.673731, "relative_strength": -8.327638, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.624871, "energy": 20.868938, "activity_lines": [ 25.389333, 25.136727, 25.246238, 25.436 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }