{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4cc5db3-bee7-4fe1-8e63-703212b5cb7e", "symbol": "GLD", "name": "SPDR GOLD TRUST GOLD SHARES NPV", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.645, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.667, "architecture_energy": 42.722, "architecture_maturity": 54.178, "architecture_confidence": 68.695, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.43, "rotation_up": 25.65, "upward_expansion": 17.94, "deceleration": 66.32, "rotation_down": 49.86, "downward_expansion": 72.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 380.536, 379.282545, 391.879476, 404.548559 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 398.47, "trend_reference": 420.567, "distance_from_trend": -0.052541, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 288.716731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.380142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.734038, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.125126, "excess_performance": -0.250751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052541, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008473, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.380142, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10734, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134118, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614734, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49729508, "relative_activity": 1.284235, "balance": 0.614734, "dry_up": 0.970466, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046459, "annualized_volatility": 0.242855, "from_high_reference": -0.218226, "from_low_reference": 0.305646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 420.567, "fair_value_reference": 288.716731, "structural_low": 363.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003802, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.007166, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.075696, "worst_return": -0.042281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.037405, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.003074, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.163088, "worst_return": -0.04058, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.11589, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.105065, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.119827, "worst_return": 0.113168, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.790154, "energy": 82.237261, "activity_lines": [ 374.590667, 382.805636, 400.024762, 412.591677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 371.9, "volume": 30781203, "typical_volume": 41677514.8, "trend": 421.991667, "fair_value": 286.074295, "relative_strength": -12.777116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.265647, "energy": 68.204813, "activity_lines": [ 372.937333, 379.236364, 396.013286, 409.263527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 371.54, "volume": 33153491, "typical_volume": 40854604.6, "trend": 421.100333, "fair_value": 287.300897, "relative_strength": -13.791087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.210018, "energy": 59.419798, "activity_lines": [ 372.178667, 376.426909, 392.451381, 406.008581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 398.47, "volume": 49729508, "typical_volume": 38723044.45, "trend": 420.567, "fair_value": 288.716731, "relative_strength": -10.734038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.666763, "energy": 42.721583, "activity_lines": [ 380.536, 379.282545, 391.879476, 404.548559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }