{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4d0be4f-7d28-41eb-8947-531f75aacea4", "symbol": "RSF", "name": "RiverNorth Capital and Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.911, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.502, "architecture_energy": 51.005, "architecture_maturity": 63.688, "architecture_confidence": 79.211, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.61, "rotation_up": 61.23, "upward_expansion": 85.8, "deceleration": 48.14, "rotation_down": 22.02, "downward_expansion": 7.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.546889, 14.518058, 14.473117, 14.385666 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 14.58, "trend_reference": 14.244885, "distance_from_trend": 0.023525, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.898522, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.130362, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.003144, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057962, "excess_performance": -0.067663, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023525, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.130362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003591, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057962, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.866599, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54421, "relative_activity": 1.104821, "balance": 1.866599, "dry_up": 1.050276, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010168, "annualized_volatility": 0.048463, "from_high_reference": -0.005026, "from_low_reference": 0.099396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.244885, "fair_value_reference": 12.898522, "structural_low": 13.704863, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.007369, "positive_rate": 0.634146, "directional_follow_through": 0.634146, "median_excess_return": -0.01227, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.046167, "worst_return": -0.068686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.006695, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.022259, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.064889, "worst_return": -0.019508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038062, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.033874, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.080985, "worst_return": -0.02594, 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60492.9, "trend": 14.157996, "fair_value": 12.835621, "relative_strength": -3.956231, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.780468, "energy": 51.325103, "activity_lines": [ 14.499885, 14.480986, 14.422801, 14.316261 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.51, "volume": 58574, "typical_volume": 59275.05, "trend": 14.187838, "fair_value": 12.855303, "relative_strength": -3.539883, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.857622, "energy": 44.021796, "activity_lines": [ 14.507984, 14.487361, 14.439142, 14.338971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.55, "volume": 25078, "typical_volume": 53303.2, "trend": 14.218382, "fair_value": 12.876585, "relative_strength": -4.133534, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.835365, "energy": 44.155271, "activity_lines": [ 14.524662, 14.500897, 14.455668, 14.362336 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.58, "volume": 54421, "typical_volume": 49257.75, "trend": 14.244885, "fair_value": 12.898522, "relative_strength": -7.003144, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.502448, "energy": 51.004592, "activity_lines": [ 14.546889, 14.518058, 14.473117, 14.385666 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }