{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4d38661-40fd-4315-a30a-47ce65009b7d", "symbol": "603108", "name": "Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.892, "architecture_energy": 41.177, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.975, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.55, "rotation_up": 25.8, "upward_expansion": 17.81, "deceleration": 66.91, "rotation_down": 43.44, "downward_expansion": 67.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.863333, 9.781273, 10.79519, 11.663419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.53, "trend_reference": 13.058333, "distance_from_trend": -0.193618, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.415156, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.35852, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.332858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.341051, "excess_performance": -0.297847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193618, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.35852, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193249, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.341051, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.11644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107320675, "relative_activity": 1.27095, "balance": 1.11644, "dry_up": 1.493225, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.133392, "annualized_volatility": 0.460031, "from_high_reference": -0.500948, "from_low_reference": 0.210345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.058333, "fair_value_reference": 16.415156, "structural_low": 8.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.025714, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.020901, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.207148, "worst_return": -0.272918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.073053, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.118995, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.592928, "worst_return": -0.279191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.090467, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.157371, "worst_return": -0.364123, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 13.591, "fair_value": 16.521809, "relative_strength": -31.974566, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.681899, "energy": 74.288095, "activity_lines": [ 9.544, 10.219818, 11.417905, 12.359979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.83, "volume": 133327978, "typical_volume": 79482516.75, "trend": 13.37, "fair_value": 16.473278, "relative_strength": -37.908597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.39434, "energy": 65.72757, "activity_lines": [ 9.280667, 9.819818, 11.092238, 12.052817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.01, "volume": 109837310, "typical_volume": 82352933.45, "trend": 13.205667, "fair_value": 16.438726, "relative_strength": -28.99157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.692185, "energy": 54.342987, "activity_lines": [ 9.514667, 9.714364, 10.908095, 11.836043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.53, "volume": 107320675, "typical_volume": 84441324.0, "trend": 13.058333, "fair_value": 16.415156, "relative_strength": -26.332858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.892442, "energy": 41.177025, "activity_lines": [ 9.863333, 9.781273, 10.79519, 11.663419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }