{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4d944be-f429-482f-8607-cc2432257e65", "symbol": "EUK", "name": "EuKedos S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.56, "architecture_energy": 85.92, "architecture_maturity": 24.153, "architecture_confidence": 81.308, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.65, "rotation_up": 10.85, "upward_expansion": 21.79, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 82.1, "downward_expansion": 95.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.534667, 0.575545, 0.607038, 0.61563 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.505, "trend_reference": 0.632767, "distance_from_trend": -0.201918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.784737, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.356472, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.009694, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.293706, "excess_performance": -0.464598, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054066, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.356472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152828, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.360097, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167875, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.293706, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.109637, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2806, "relative_activity": 0.322009, "balance": 0.109637, "dry_up": 0.439004, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092155, "annualized_volatility": 0.560106, "from_high_reference": -0.376543, "from_low_reference": 0.122222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.632767, "fair_value_reference": 0.784737, "structural_low": 0.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.018248, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.577778, "median_excess_return": -0.021053, "regime_survival": 0.911111, "best_return": 0.269231, "worst_return": -0.223881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.034247, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.077632, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.050459, "worst_return": -0.234848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.086207, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.234256, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": -0.002294, "worst_return": -0.248276, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2022-01-21", "end": "2022-02-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097345, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-02-25", "end": "2023-01-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.104167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-01-27", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.293103, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.08982, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.669429, "energy": 43.243357, "activity_lines": [ 0.614667, 0.631364, 0.634438, 0.638402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.575, "volume": 5448, "typical_volume": 8815.2, "trend": 0.646933, "fair_value": 0.792269, "relative_strength": -26.297298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.191194, "energy": 66.824023, "activity_lines": [ 0.595667, 0.619545, 0.629186, 0.633492 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.505, "volume": 4850, "typical_volume": 8844.0, "trend": 0.639933, "fair_value": 0.788487, "relative_strength": -34.911569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.86778, "energy": 84.157357, "activity_lines": [ 0.559667, 0.596273, 0.617719, 0.624335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.505, "volume": 2806, "typical_volume": 8714.05, "trend": 0.632767, "fair_value": 0.784737, "relative_strength": -36.009694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.560156, "energy": 85.919724, "activity_lines": [ 0.534667, 0.575545, 0.607038, 0.61563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }