{ "ticker": { "uuid": "c4dfe580-e262-4974-815e-d17228087d42", "symbol": "1455", "name": "Zig Sheng Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 76.324, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.762, "architecture_energy": 20.959, "architecture_maturity": 47.114, "architecture_confidence": 77.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.44, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 53.43, "deceleration": 90.09, "rotation_down": 30.89, "downward_expansion": 19.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.194667, 9.355906, 9.162416, 8.998714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 9.77, "trend_reference": 8.795844, "distance_from_trend": 0.110752, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.015774, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.333833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.159544, "excess_performance": -0.281828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110752, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074773, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024539, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.200129, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183338, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201789, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.159544, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.457687, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11479995, "relative_activity": 1.885149, "balance": 3.457687, "dry_up": 0.910471, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095131, "annualized_volatility": 0.460757, "from_high_reference": -0.111818, "from_low_reference": 0.316405 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.795844, "fair_value_reference": 10.015774, "structural_low": 7.707177, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014019, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.019403, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.385714, "worst_return": -0.075082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05445, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.258537, "worst_return": -0.196033, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085727, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.128922, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.501548, "worst_return": -0.274296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.040855, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.100657, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.372826, "worst_return": -0.454536, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.048148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041475, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128713, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063784, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054893, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044318, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.18, "volume": 7355884, "typical_volume": 6119656.9, "trend": 8.595021, "fair_value": 10.03432, "relative_strength": -21.511142, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.793906, "energy": 41.413425, "activity_lines": [ 9.660068, 9.522237, 9.071891, 8.882522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.12, "volume": 3642640, "typical_volume": 6031882.55, "trend": 8.644084, "fair_value": 10.029054, "relative_strength": -22.872749, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.090477, "energy": 30.922253, "activity_lines": [ 9.440034, 9.507268, 9.096438, 8.916391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.55, "volume": 4226792, "typical_volume": 5946457.6, "trend": 8.675787, "fair_value": 10.021143, "relative_strength": -25.868341, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.072843, "energy": 19.041753, "activity_lines": [ 9.091333, 9.364943, 9.064752, 8.910321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.0, "volume": 2828574, "typical_volume": 5706935.5, "trend": 8.724131, "fair_value": 10.015738, "relative_strength": -22.951616, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.243557, "energy": 21.423275, "activity_lines": [ 8.948, 9.295198, 9.076738, 8.931238 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 9.77, "volume": 11479995, "typical_volume": 6089702.85, "trend": 8.795844, "fair_value": 10.015774, "relative_strength": -18.333833, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.762219, "energy": 20.958957, "activity_lines": [ 9.194667, 9.355906, 9.162416, 8.998714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }